Traders have overwhelmingly positioned on 13°C as Warsaw’s highest temperature for May 17, reflecting the latest high-resolution forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. These models show a stable high-pressure system limiting daytime heating, with projected afternoon maxima holding near 13°C under partly cloudy skies and light northerly flow. Current surface observations indicate morning temperatures rising gradually without rapid convective development, aligning with mid-May climatology for central Poland. While the consensus appears robust, an unexpected afternoon temperature spike from localized insolation or model error could still push readings to 14°C, though such scenarios remain low-probability based on the most recent ensemble guidance.