The open seat in Arizona's 1st congressional district, vacated after Republican incumbent David Schweikert launched a gubernatorial bid, has drawn strong Democratic and Republican primary fields ahead of the July 21 contests. With a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+1 and a recent history of narrow margins, traders assign the Democratic nominee a clear edge at roughly 70 percent implied probability. Recent polling shows Democratic contenders leading or competitive in head-to-head general-election matchups, while the district's suburban Phoenix electorate and national midterm dynamics continue to shape positioning. The Republican primary remains fluid among state legislators and local figures, but the seat's swing character keeps both parties' nominees within reach depending on turnout and candidate quality emerging from the primaries.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAZ-01 House Election Winner
AZ-01 House Election Winner
NEU
NEU
4. Nov. 2026
Democratic Party
74%
Republican Party
26%
NEU
NEU
4. Nov. 2026
Democratic Party
$347 Vol.
74%
Republican Party
$491 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Arizona's 1st congressional district, vacated after Republican incumbent David Schweikert launched a gubernatorial bid, has drawn strong Democratic and Republican primary fields ahead of the July 21 contests. With a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+1 and a recent history of narrow margins, traders assign the Democratic nominee a clear edge at roughly 70 percent implied probability. Recent polling shows Democratic contenders leading or competitive in head-to-head general-election matchups, while the district's suburban Phoenix electorate and national midterm dynamics continue to shape positioning. The Republican primary remains fluid among state legislators and local figures, but the seat's swing character keeps both parties' nominees within reach depending on turnout and candidate quality emerging from the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ET
Volumen
$838Enddatum
4. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Arizona's 1st congressional district, vacated after Republican incumbent David Schweikert launched a gubernatorial bid, has drawn strong Democratic and Republican primary fields ahead of the July 21 contests. With a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+1 and a recent history of narrow margins, traders assign the Democratic nominee a clear edge at roughly 70 percent implied probability. Recent polling shows Democratic contenders leading or competitive in head-to-head general-election matchups, while the district's suburban Phoenix electorate and national midterm dynamics continue to shape positioning. The Republican primary remains fluid among state legislators and local figures, but the seat's swing character keeps both parties' nominees within reach depending on turnout and candidate quality emerging from the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$838Enddatum
4. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open seat in Arizona's 1st congressional district, vacated after Republican incumbent David Schweikert launched a gubernatorial bid, has drawn strong Democratic and Republican primary fields ahead of the July 21 contests. With a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+1 and a recent history of narrow margins, traders assign the Democratic nominee a clear edge at roughly 70 percent implied probability. Recent polling shows Democratic contenders leading or competitive in head-to-head general-election matchups, while the district's suburban Phoenix electorate and national midterm dynamics continue to shape positioning. The Republican primary remains fluid among state legislators and local figures, but the seat's swing character keeps both parties' nominees within reach depending on turnout and candidate quality emerging from the primaries.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen