Amish Shah leads Jay Feely in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District race due to recent polling and nonpartisan ratings that show a narrow Democratic edge in this open-seat contest. A late-October survey of likely voters gave Shah a 5.6-point advantage, within the margin of error, while the Cook Political Report rates the district Leans Democratic. Shah, a former state lawmaker and emergency physician who won his July primary, benefits from stronger independent support and outside spending aligned with Democratic priorities on healthcare costs. Feely, a former NFL kicker backed by President Trump, has drawn heavy Republican investment in the final weeks focused on border security and taxes. Early voting is underway ahead of the November 3 general election, with market pricing reflecting traders’ assessment of these late-cycle dynamics in a district that remains closely contested.