Amish Shah holds a strong lead in the AZ-01 House race according to trader consensus, driven by consistent polling margins of 4–6 points in his favor across recent surveys and nonpartisan ratings that classify the open seat as Lean Democratic. The district, covering Scottsdale and northeastern Maricopa County suburbs with an R+1 partisan lean, became more competitive after Republican incumbent David Schweikert ran unsuccessfully for governor. Shah, an emergency physician and former state lawmaker, benefits from strong Democratic performance in recent cycles and voter priorities around healthcare and abortion access, while Feely, a former NFL kicker endorsed by President Trump, focuses on border security and law enforcement but trails in head-to-head polling. Heavy outside spending exceeding $25 million has not reversed Shah’s edge, and with Election Day underway, the market reflects the current polling average and forecaster consensus rather than historical Republican holds in the seat.