LaShonda "L.J." Holloway leads the FL-04 Democratic primary market at 88.5% trader consensus ahead of the August 18 vote, driven by her status as the two-time prior nominee and residual name recognition in a district where Black voters comprise 63% of the Democratic electorate. An internal June poll showed her ahead by double digits among that group, with many still undecided. Michael Kirwan trails at 9.5% despite raising over $740,000 and securing union and legislative endorsements, while Brit Robinson sits at 3.4% as a lower-funded Democratic Socialist appealing to younger voters. Holloway's petition qualification and federal experience further bolster her positioning in the closing days of early voting, though the contest remains open until ballots are counted.