Weather model consensus from global forecasting systems points to a narrow range around 27–28°C for Beijing’s maximum on September 14, supporting the closely matched market-implied odds of 34% and 39% for those outcomes. Subtle differences hinge on the strength and timing of a weak cold front interacting with residual warm air masses, plus variable boundary-layer mixing and urban heat effects that can shift daily highs by 1°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest this close to the event, yet small revisions in wind direction or cloud cover could still tip the result. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and updated model runs expected over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Peking am 14. September?
Höchste Temperatur in Peking am 14. September?
28°C 39%
27°C 34%
29°C 13%
26°C 11%
NEU
NEU
14. Sep. 2026
21°C oder weniger
3%
22°C
3%
23°C
3%
24°C
3%
25°C
4%
26°C
11%
27°C
34%
28°C
39%
29°C
13%
30°C
9%
31°C oder höher
6%
28°C 39%
27°C 34%
29°C 13%
26°C 11%
NEU
NEU
14. Sep. 2026
21°C oder weniger
$0 Vol.
3%
22°C
$0 Vol.
3%
23°C
$0 Vol.
3%
24°C
$0 Vol.
3%
25°C
$20 Vol.
4%
26°C
$60 Vol.
11%
27°C
$0 Vol.
34%
28°C
$10 Vol.
39%
29°C
$61 Vol.
13%
30°C
$0 Vol.
9%
31°C oder höher
$0 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Weather model consensus from global forecasting systems points to a narrow range around 27–28°C for Beijing’s maximum on September 14, supporting the closely matched market-implied odds of 34% and 39% for those outcomes. Subtle differences hinge on the strength and timing of a weak cold front interacting with residual warm air masses, plus variable boundary-layer mixing and urban heat effects that can shift daily highs by 1°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest this close to the event, yet small revisions in wind direction or cloud cover could still tip the result. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and updated model runs expected over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volumen
$151Enddatum
14. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Weather model consensus from global forecasting systems points to a narrow range around 27–28°C for Beijing’s maximum on September 14, supporting the closely matched market-implied odds of 34% and 39% for those outcomes. Subtle differences hinge on the strength and timing of a weak cold front interacting with residual warm air masses, plus variable boundary-layer mixing and urban heat effects that can shift daily highs by 1°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest this close to the event, yet small revisions in wind direction or cloud cover could still tip the result. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and updated model runs expected over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$151Enddatum
14. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Weather model consensus from global forecasting systems points to a narrow range around 27–28°C for Beijing’s maximum on September 14, supporting the closely matched market-implied odds of 34% and 39% for those outcomes. Subtle differences hinge on the strength and timing of a weak cold front interacting with residual warm air masses, plus variable boundary-layer mixing and urban heat effects that can shift daily highs by 1°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest this close to the event, yet small revisions in wind direction or cloud cover could still tip the result. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and updated model runs expected over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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