National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago point to a high temperature of 78°F or warmer on May 18, driven by southerly flow advecting warm, moist air from the southern Plains beneath a strengthening high-pressure ridge. Multiple model runs, including the latest GFS and ECMWF guidance, show minimal cloud cover and daytime heating pushing readings into the upper 70s to low 80s, well above the city’s historical May 18 average near 70°F. This consensus supports the market’s dominant implied probability for the upper bracket while leaving room for minor revisions if overnight model trends shift. Traders will watch the next official forecast update for any changes in the thermal profile or wind direction that could alter peak readings.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Chicago am 18. Mai?
78°F oder höher 84%
76-77°F 14%
74-75°F 2.1%
72-73°F <1%
$21,210 Vol.
$21,210 Vol.
59°F oder darunter
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
14%
78°F oder höher
84%
78°F oder höher 84%
76-77°F 14%
74-75°F 2.1%
72-73°F <1%
$21,210 Vol.
$21,210 Vol.
59°F oder darunter
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
14%
78°F oder höher
84%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDNational Weather Service forecasts for Chicago point to a high temperature of 78°F or warmer on May 18, driven by southerly flow advecting warm, moist air from the southern Plains beneath a strengthening high-pressure ridge. Multiple model runs, including the latest GFS and ECMWF guidance, show minimal cloud cover and daytime heating pushing readings into the upper 70s to low 80s, well above the city’s historical May 18 average near 70°F. This consensus supports the market’s dominant implied probability for the upper bracket while leaving room for minor revisions if overnight model trends shift. Traders will watch the next official forecast update for any changes in the thermal profile or wind direction that could alter peak readings.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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