Latest global model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs positions 22°C as the leading outcome for Istanbul’s September 14 high, with trader-implied probability at 61%. Northerly winds and increased cloud cover associated with a passing frontal system are driving a cooling trend from recent 28°C peaks, limiting daytime heating while scattered light showers further suppress maxima. Ensemble spreads remain narrow around 21–23°C, consistent with historical early-September climatology under similar synoptic patterns. Updated high-resolution runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance expected in the next 24 hours represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Istanbul am 14. September?
Höchste Temperatur in Istanbul am 14. September?
22°C 61%
20°C 25%
24°C 25%
21°C 22%
NEU
NEU
14. Sep. 2026
18°C oder darunter
8%
19°C
6%
20°C
25%
21°C
22%
22°C
61%
23°C
21%
24°C
25%
25°C
7%
26°C
5%
27°C
4%
28°C oder höher
10%
22°C 61%
20°C 25%
24°C 25%
21°C 22%
NEU
NEU
14. Sep. 2026
18°C oder darunter
$0 Vol.
8%
19°C
$0 Vol.
6%
20°C
$0 Vol.
25%
21°C
$0 Vol.
22%
22°C
$181 Vol.
61%
23°C
$62 Vol.
21%
24°C
$0 Vol.
25%
25°C
$0 Vol.
7%
26°C
$0 Vol.
5%
27°C
$0 Vol.
4%
28°C oder höher
$0 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest global model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs positions 22°C as the leading outcome for Istanbul’s September 14 high, with trader-implied probability at 61%. Northerly winds and increased cloud cover associated with a passing frontal system are driving a cooling trend from recent 28°C peaks, limiting daytime heating while scattered light showers further suppress maxima. Ensemble spreads remain narrow around 21–23°C, consistent with historical early-September climatology under similar synoptic patterns. Updated high-resolution runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance expected in the next 24 hours represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volumen
$243Enddatum
14. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest global model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs positions 22°C as the leading outcome for Istanbul’s September 14 high, with trader-implied probability at 61%. Northerly winds and increased cloud cover associated with a passing frontal system are driving a cooling trend from recent 28°C peaks, limiting daytime heating while scattered light showers further suppress maxima. Ensemble spreads remain narrow around 21–23°C, consistent with historical early-September climatology under similar synoptic patterns. Updated high-resolution runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance expected in the next 24 hours represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$243Enddatum
14. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Latest global model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs positions 22°C as the leading outcome for Istanbul’s September 14 high, with trader-implied probability at 61%. Northerly winds and increased cloud cover associated with a passing frontal system are driving a cooling trend from recent 28°C peaks, limiting daytime heating while scattered light showers further suppress maxima. Ensemble spreads remain narrow around 21–23°C, consistent with historical early-September climatology under similar synoptic patterns. Updated high-resolution runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance expected in the next 24 hours represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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