India Meteorological Department forecasts place Lucknow’s maximum temperature at 41°C on May 17 under mainly clear pre-monsoon skies, directly supporting the market’s 59.5% implied probability for 41°C or below and 35.5% for exactly 42°C. Lingering moisture from recent thunderstorm activity has suppressed daytime heating several degrees below the 40–43°C seasonal climatological baseline for the Ganges Plain, limiting rapid warming despite typical May insolation levels. Minimal spread among short-range models keeps higher outcomes like 43°C or above at low single-digit probabilities unless drier air arrives and boosts solar heating before sunset. Final official readings from the Chaudhary Charan Singh International Airport observatory will resolve the market, with any late IMD update capable of shifting trader consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Lucknow am 17. Mai?
41°C or below 61%
42°C 35%
43°C 4.0%
44°C 2.1%
$19,243 Vol.
$19,243 Vol.
41°C or below
61%
42°C
35%
43°C
4%
44°C
2%
45°C
<1%
46°C
<1%
47°C
<1%
48°C
<1%
49°C
<1%
50°C
<1%
51°C or higher
<1%
41°C or below 61%
42°C 35%
43°C 4.0%
44°C 2.1%
$19,243 Vol.
$19,243 Vol.
41°C or below
61%
42°C
35%
43°C
4%
44°C
2%
45°C
<1%
46°C
<1%
47°C
<1%
48°C
<1%
49°C
<1%
50°C
<1%
51°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKIndia Meteorological Department forecasts place Lucknow’s maximum temperature at 41°C on May 17 under mainly clear pre-monsoon skies, directly supporting the market’s 59.5% implied probability for 41°C or below and 35.5% for exactly 42°C. Lingering moisture from recent thunderstorm activity has suppressed daytime heating several degrees below the 40–43°C seasonal climatological baseline for the Ganges Plain, limiting rapid warming despite typical May insolation levels. Minimal spread among short-range models keeps higher outcomes like 43°C or above at low single-digit probabilities unless drier air arrives and boosts solar heating before sunset. Final official readings from the Chaudhary Charan Singh International Airport observatory will resolve the market, with any late IMD update capable of shifting trader consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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