Recent India Meteorological Department forecasts and observations show Lucknow's daytime highs moderated by lingering cloud cover and a western disturbance, with maxima around 36–38°C in the prior 48 hours—several degrees below the mid-May climatological average of 39–42°C. These conditions are expected to ease only modestly by May 17, limiting peak heating and keeping official airport readings at or below 41°C according to consensus model guidance. Traders have therefore assigned 86% implied probability to the 41°C-or-below bin, with sharply declining odds for 42°C and higher reflecting the low likelihood of rapid intensification or clear-sky extremes before the next forecast update.