Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 41°C or below in Lucknow on May 15, driven by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts capping the maximum at 39°C amid clear skies and dry conditions, with late-afternoon observations at Lucknow station hitting 36.4°C by 17:30 IST—well past peak solar heating and sunset approaching at 18:46 IST. Yesterday's Lucknow Airport maximum of 37.3°C, 2.5°C below climatological norms for mid-May (typically 39–42°C), underscores subdued heat trends without heatwave designations. District block-level data aligns at around 41°C maximum, reinforcing safety margin. Official IMD daily verification report, due shortly, will resolve the market; only an anomalous equipment reading or unforeseen radiative surge could shift outcomes higher, scenarios deemed negligible by forecast models.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Lucknow on May 15?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on May 15?
41°C or below 100.0%
42°C <1%
43°C <1%
44°C <1%
$38,212 Vol.
$38,212 Vol.
41°C or below
100%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C
<1%
46°C
<1%
47°C
<1%
48°C
<1%
49°C
<1%
50°C
<1%
51°C or higher
<1%
41°C or below 100.0%
42°C <1%
43°C <1%
44°C <1%
$38,212 Vol.
$38,212 Vol.
41°C or below
100%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C
<1%
46°C
<1%
47°C
<1%
48°C
<1%
49°C
<1%
50°C
<1%
51°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 41°C or below in Lucknow on May 15, driven by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts capping the maximum at 39°C amid clear skies and dry conditions, with late-afternoon observations at Lucknow station hitting 36.4°C by 17:30 IST—well past peak solar heating and sunset approaching at 18:46 IST. Yesterday's Lucknow Airport maximum of 37.3°C, 2.5°C below climatological norms for mid-May (typically 39–42°C), underscores subdued heat trends without heatwave designations. District block-level data aligns at around 41°C maximum, reinforcing safety margin. Official IMD daily verification report, due shortly, will resolve the market; only an anomalous equipment reading or unforeseen radiative surge could shift outcomes higher, scenarios deemed negligible by forecast models.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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