With five magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquakes recorded worldwide through mid-May 2026 according to USGS data, mostly along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones, the global count remains aligned with the long-term average of roughly 16 such events per year. A notable lull since the April 20 Japan event introduces uncertainty, as seismicity often follows a Poisson distribution with natural clustering and quiet intervals. Traders appear to weigh the limited six-week window to June 30 against historical monthly rates and ongoing plate-boundary monitoring, favoring totals near eight or fewer while acknowledging potential for one or two additional events from continued activity in active regions like Tonga and Vanuatu.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWie viele Erdbeben mit einer Stärke von 7,0 oder mehr bis zum 30. Juni? (Höhere Treffer)
≤8 50%
9 14%
10 11%
11 11%
$90,386 Vol.
$90,386 Vol.
≤8
50%
9
20%
10
14%
11
11%
12
8%
13
3%
14+
2%
≤8 50%
9 14%
10 11%
11 11%
$90,386 Vol.
$90,386 Vol.
≤8
50%
9
20%
10
14%
11
11%
12
8%
13
3%
14+
2%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 2, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...With five magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquakes recorded worldwide through mid-May 2026 according to USGS data, mostly along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones, the global count remains aligned with the long-term average of roughly 16 such events per year. A notable lull since the April 20 Japan event introduces uncertainty, as seismicity often follows a Poisson distribution with natural clustering and quiet intervals. Traders appear to weigh the limited six-week window to June 30 against historical monthly rates and ongoing plate-boundary monitoring, favoring totals near eight or fewer while acknowledging potential for one or two additional events from continued activity in active regions like Tonga and Vanuatu.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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