**Trader sentiment for Cape Town’s August 29 minimum temperature reflects tight uncertainty among 10–14 °C outcomes, driven by converging but still-divergent forecast guidance on overnight radiative cooling.** Current model consensus and official outlooks place the day’s low in the 11–13 °C range, with some guidance (including South African Weather Service and several international runs) holding near 13 °C while others dip toward 10–11 °C under clearer skies or stronger southerly flow. Overcast conditions and light rain or drizzle through much of the day have limited daytime heating and slowed the nocturnal temperature drop, keeping surface readings in the mid-teens °C into the afternoon. Key differentiating factors include the timing of any clearing, wind strength (moderate southerlies enhance mixing and can prevent deeper cooling), and the moderating influence of the adjacent Atlantic. Historical August minima in Cape Town typically fall between roughly 8–12 °C, so today’s milder trajectory keeps probabilities for sub-10 °C outcomes low. With the day still unfolding and new model runs or observational updates possible before the overnight minimum is finalized, the market’s near-even pricing between 10 °C, 11 °C, 12 °C, 13 °C, and 14 °C accurately captures the remaining forecast spread.