**Recent rainfall and cold air intrusion from the north have cooled Chongqing significantly ahead of August 31, shifting the lowest temperature outlook toward the mid-20s°C while leaving room for variability around 22–25°C.** Official forecasts from the Chongqing Meteorological Station and international models (including ECMWF and GFS analogs) indicate that the strong precipitation event of August 28–29, accompanied by 6–9 grade gusts and localized heavy rain, introduced cooler northerly air. This lowered daytime highs and set up clearer, drier conditions for August 30 night into August 31, when radiative cooling under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies could produce a minimum in the 23–26°C range. Historical August climatology shows typical overnight lows near 25–26°C, but the recent cold surge has depressed this baseline by several degrees in the short term. Market-implied probabilities cluster tightly between 18–24°C because ensemble forecasts diverge on exact cloud cover, wind speed, and urban heat-island effects overnight; lighter winds favor greater radiative cooling (pushing toward 22–23°C), while any residual moisture or urban warming supports 24–25°C. Probabilities above 25°C remain low as the post-rain environment limits rebound. Traders are monitoring updated model runs and local station observations through August 30 for the final resolution.