Recent Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts show London’s overnight minimum on May 17 settling near 10–11 °C under a mild southwesterly Atlantic flow that curbs radiative cooling beneath variable cloud cover. This setup aligns closely with the historical May average low of about 9 °C at Heathrow while limiting the chance of deeper nocturnal drops. Trader consensus, reflected in the 84.5 % implied probability for an 11 °C low, incorporates the latest model runs and ongoing surface observations that continue to support readings no lower than 10 °C through dawn. Key resolution hinges on official Met Office station data at the day’s end, with any late clearing skies offering the main remaining variable that could still nudge the minimum slightly lower.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in London am 17. Mai?
11°C 85%
10°C 11%
9°C <1%
8°C <1%
$8,710 Vol.
$8,710 Vol.
2°C oder darunter
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
11%
11°C
85%
12°C oder höher
<1%
11°C 85%
10°C 11%
9°C <1%
8°C <1%
$8,710 Vol.
$8,710 Vol.
2°C oder darunter
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
11%
11°C
85%
12°C oder höher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCRecent Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts show London’s overnight minimum on May 17 settling near 10–11 °C under a mild southwesterly Atlantic flow that curbs radiative cooling beneath variable cloud cover. This setup aligns closely with the historical May average low of about 9 °C at Heathrow while limiting the chance of deeper nocturnal drops. Trader consensus, reflected in the 84.5 % implied probability for an 11 °C low, incorporates the latest model runs and ongoing surface observations that continue to support readings no lower than 10 °C through dawn. Key resolution hinges on official Met Office station data at the day’s end, with any late clearing skies offering the main remaining variable that could still nudge the minimum slightly lower.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen