Official meteorological observations from Météo-France recorded a minimum temperature of 6.1°C in Paris during the overnight period into May 16, 2026, establishing the precise threshold that drove the market’s 100% implied probability for a 6°C low. This value sits within the typical early-May climatological range for the Paris basin, where northerly flow and clear skies under a high-pressure ridge permitted efficient radiative cooling overnight. Model consensus from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts had converged on this outcome in the final 48-hour forecast cycle, with limited spread around the 5–7°C window. Resolution hinges on the official daily minimum reported by the Paris-Montsouris station; any post-processing adjustment exceeding 0.5°C or a station-specific anomaly could theoretically shift the outcome, though historical verification shows such revisions are rare for this location and date.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Paris am 16. Mai?
6°C 100.0%
0°C oder darunter <1%
1°C <1%
2°C <1%
$17,421 Vol.
$17,421 Vol.
0°C oder darunter
<1%
1°C
<1%
2°C
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
100%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C oder höher
<1%
6°C 100.0%
0°C oder darunter <1%
1°C <1%
2°C <1%
$17,421 Vol.
$17,421 Vol.
0°C oder darunter
<1%
1°C
<1%
2°C
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
100%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C oder höher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Official meteorological observations from Météo-France recorded a minimum temperature of 6.1°C in Paris during the overnight period into May 16, 2026, establishing the precise threshold that drove the market’s 100% implied probability for a 6°C low. This value sits within the typical early-May climatological range for the Paris basin, where northerly flow and clear skies under a high-pressure ridge permitted efficient radiative cooling overnight. Model consensus from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts had converged on this outcome in the final 48-hour forecast cycle, with limited spread around the 5–7°C window. Resolution hinges on the official daily minimum reported by the Paris-Montsouris station; any post-processing adjustment exceeding 0.5°C or a station-specific anomaly could theoretically shift the outcome, though historical verification shows such revisions are rare for this location and date.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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