Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF models indicate mild overnight conditions for Paris on May 20, with minimum temperatures most likely settling between 11°C and 13°C amid light variable winds and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. This aligns with mid-May climatological averages near 9–11°C while reflecting a modest warm anomaly driven by southerly flow and stable high pressure. Traders have concentrated implied probability on the 12°C and 13°C outcomes because small shifts in cloud cover or wind speed could easily move the overnight low by 1–2°C. Updated model runs expected in the next 48 hours will provide the clearest guidance before market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Paris am 20. Mai?
12°C 23%
13°C 21%
11°C 18%
14°C 15%
6°C oder weniger
1%
7°C
1%
8°C
5%
9°C
5%
10°C
9%
11°C
13%
12°C
23%
13°C
21%
14°C
15%
15°C
5%
16°C oder höher
4%
12°C 23%
13°C 21%
11°C 18%
14°C 15%
6°C oder weniger
1%
7°C
1%
8°C
5%
9°C
5%
10°C
9%
11°C
13%
12°C
23%
13°C
21%
14°C
15%
15°C
5%
16°C oder höher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF models indicate mild overnight conditions for Paris on May 20, with minimum temperatures most likely settling between 11°C and 13°C amid light variable winds and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. This aligns with mid-May climatological averages near 9–11°C while reflecting a modest warm anomaly driven by southerly flow and stable high pressure. Traders have concentrated implied probability on the 12°C and 13°C outcomes because small shifts in cloud cover or wind speed could easily move the overnight low by 1–2°C. Updated model runs expected in the next 48 hours will provide the clearest guidance before market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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