Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs updated through September 18, indicate stable high pressure over northern France with southwest flow and partly cloudy skies favoring overnight radiative cooling to a minimum near 13°C in central Paris on September 19. This aligns with the market's leading implied probabilities for 12°C (43%) and 13°C (27.5%), as traders weigh model spread in boundary-layer temperatures against the historical September average low of 11.2°C. Clear conditions overnight support the consensus range while urban heat effects and wind speeds near 5-10 km/h introduce modest uncertainty in the exact recorded minimum at official stations. Updated model guidance expected overnight could refine these odds ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Paris am 19. September?
12°C 44%
13°C 29%
11°C 16%
15°C 10%
10°C oder weniger
1%
11°C
16%
12°C
44%
13°C
29%
14°C
8%
15°C
10%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C oder höher
1%
12°C 44%
13°C 29%
11°C 16%
15°C 10%
10°C oder weniger
1%
11°C
16%
12°C
44%
13°C
29%
14°C
8%
15°C
10%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C oder höher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 17, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs updated through September 18, indicate stable high pressure over northern France with southwest flow and partly cloudy skies favoring overnight radiative cooling to a minimum near 13°C in central Paris on September 19. This aligns with the market's leading implied probabilities for 12°C (43%) and 13°C (27.5%), as traders weigh model spread in boundary-layer temperatures against the historical September average low of 11.2°C. Clear conditions overnight support the consensus range while urban heat effects and wind speeds near 5-10 km/h introduce modest uncertainty in the exact recorded minimum at official stations. Updated model guidance expected overnight could refine these odds ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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