**Short-term forecast uncertainty around nocturnal cooling drives the tight market split between sub-10°C and 19°C+ outcomes for Warsaw’s September 14 minimum.** Current ensemble guidance and regional models indicate a mild overnight period with expected lows near 13–15°C under variable cloud cover and light westerly winds, consistent with mid-September climatology. Key variables include the degree of overnight clearing, which could enhance radiative cooling and push readings lower, versus increasing cloudiness or a modest warm advection that would support higher minima. Model runs show modest spread in boundary-layer conditions over the next 48 hours, with resolution hinging on updated high-resolution guidance and surface observations. Traders appear to weigh these near-term atmospheric dynamics heavily, producing closely matched probabilities across the distribution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Warschau am 14. September?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Warschau am 14. September?
9°C oder weniger 95%
19°C oder höher 95%
11°C 40%
12°C 40%
NEU
NEU
14. Sep. 2026
9°C oder weniger
95%
10°C
39%
11°C
40%
12°C
40%
13°C
22%
14°C
39%
15°C
10%
16°C
39%
17°C
39%
18°C
39%
19°C oder höher
95%
9°C oder weniger 95%
19°C oder höher 95%
11°C 40%
12°C 40%
NEU
NEU
14. Sep. 2026
9°C oder weniger
$0 Vol.
95%
10°C
$0 Vol.
39%
11°C
$0 Vol.
40%
12°C
$0 Vol.
40%
13°C
$0 Vol.
22%
14°C
$0 Vol.
39%
15°C
$54 Vol.
10%
16°C
$0 Vol.
39%
17°C
$0 Vol.
39%
18°C
$0 Vol.
39%
19°C oder höher
$0 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-term forecast uncertainty around nocturnal cooling drives the tight market split between sub-10°C and 19°C+ outcomes for Warsaw’s September 14 minimum.**
Current ensemble guidance and regional models indicate a mild overnight period with expected lows near 13–15°C under variable cloud cover and light westerly winds, consistent with mid-September climatology. Key variables include the degree of overnight clearing, which could enhance radiative cooling and push readings lower, versus increasing cloudiness or a modest warm advection that would support higher minima. Model runs show modest spread in boundary-layer conditions over the next 48 hours, with resolution hinging on updated high-resolution guidance and surface observations. Traders appear to weigh these near-term atmospheric dynamics heavily, producing closely matched probabilities across the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$54Enddatum
14. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-term forecast uncertainty around nocturnal cooling drives the tight market split between sub-10°C and 19°C+ outcomes for Warsaw’s September 14 minimum.**
Current ensemble guidance and regional models indicate a mild overnight period with expected lows near 13–15°C under variable cloud cover and light westerly winds, consistent with mid-September climatology. Key variables include the degree of overnight clearing, which could enhance radiative cooling and push readings lower, versus increasing cloudiness or a modest warm advection that would support higher minima. Model runs show modest spread in boundary-layer conditions over the next 48 hours, with resolution hinging on updated high-resolution guidance and surface observations. Traders appear to weigh these near-term atmospheric dynamics heavily, producing closely matched probabilities across the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$54Enddatum
14. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...**Short-term forecast uncertainty around nocturnal cooling drives the tight market split between sub-10°C and 19°C+ outcomes for Warsaw’s September 14 minimum.** Current ensemble guidance and regional models indicate a mild overnight period with expected lows near 13–15°C under variable cloud cover and light westerly winds, consistent with mid-September climatology. Key variables include the degree of overnight clearing, which could enhance radiative cooling and push readings lower, versus increasing cloudiness or a modest warm advection that would support higher minima. Model runs show modest spread in boundary-layer conditions over the next 48 hours, with resolution hinging on updated high-resolution guidance and surface observations. Traders appear to weigh these near-term atmospheric dynamics heavily, producing closely matched probabilities across the distribution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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