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Politik·Primär

South Carolina Special Senate Republican Primary: First Round Margin of Victory

icon for South Carolina Special Senate Republican Primary: First Round Margin of Victory
Politik·Primär

South Carolina Special Senate Republican Primary: First Round Margin of Victory

Graham Nordone 5–10% 97.5%

Graham Nordone 10–15% 2.4%

Norman <5% 2.0%

Graham Nordone 20%+ 1.4%

Polymarket

$6,480 Vol.

Graham Nordone 5–10% 97.5%

Graham Nordone 10–15% 2.4%

Norman <5% 2.0%

Graham Nordone 20%+ 1.4%

Polymarket

$6,480 Vol.

icon for Graham Nordone 20%+

Graham Nordone 20%+

$248 Vol.

1%

icon for Graham Nordone 15–20%

Graham Nordone 15–20%

$179 Vol.

1%

icon for Graham Nordone 10–15%

Graham Nordone 10–15%

$717 Vol.

2%

icon for Graham Nordone 5–10%

Graham Nordone 5–10%

$890 Vol.

98%

icon for Graham Nordone <5%

Graham Nordone <5%

$393 Vol.

1%

icon for Norman <5%

Norman <5%

$2,059 Vol.

2%

icon for Norman 5%+

Norman 5%+

$602 Vol.

1%

icon for Fry <5%

Fry <5%

$439 Vol.

1%

icon for Fry 5%+

Fry 5%+

$767 Vol.

1%

icon for Sanford wins

Sanford wins

$185 Vol.

1%

The special primary election for the US Senate election in South Carolina is scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Darline Graham’s commanding position in the South Carolina special Republican Senate primary reflects strong name recognition as the appointed incumbent and sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, combined with President Trump’s endorsement that consolidated support among Republican voters. Vote splitting among challengers including Reps. Ralph Norman and Russell Fry plus former Gov. Mark Sanford further aided a moderate lead in the multi-candidate field. Traders priced the 5–10% margin outcome at 97.5% because polling trends, regional strongholds, and low primary turnout patterns pointed to Graham finishing comfortably ahead without reaching a majority that would avoid a runoff. A late surge in one challenger’s turnout or unexpected endorsement shifts could narrow the gap, though such moves would need to overcome her structural advantages within the resolution window.

The special primary election for the US Senate election in South Carolina is scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$6,480
Enddatum
11. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 7, 2026, 4:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The special primary election for the US Senate election in South Carolina is scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The special primary election for the US Senate election in South Carolina is scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Darline Graham’s commanding position in the South Carolina special Republican Senate primary reflects strong name recognition as the appointed incumbent and sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, combined with President Trump’s endorsement that consolidated support among Republican voters. Vote splitting among challengers including Reps. Ralph Norman and Russell Fry plus former Gov. Mark Sanford further aided a moderate lead in the multi-candidate field. Traders priced the 5–10% margin outcome at 97.5% because polling trends, regional strongholds, and low primary turnout patterns pointed to Graham finishing comfortably ahead without reaching a majority that would avoid a runoff. A late surge in one challenger’s turnout or unexpected endorsement shifts could narrow the gap, though such moves would need to overcome her structural advantages within the resolution window.

The special primary election for the US Senate election in South Carolina is scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$6,480
Enddatum
11. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 7, 2026, 4:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The special primary election for the US Senate election in South Carolina is scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Verwandte

icon for Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?

Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?

100%
icon for Wird Ralph Norman in der ersten Runde der Sondervorwahl der Republikaner in South Carolina den zweiten Platz belegen?

Wird Ralph Norman in der ersten Runde der Sondervorwahl der Republikaner in South Carolina den zweiten Platz belegen?

100%
Ja
icon for Wird der Kandidat der Republikanischen Partei die Senatswahl 2026 in South Carolina mit 10%-15% Vorsprung gewinnen?

Wird der Kandidat der Republikanischen Partei die Senatswahl 2026 in South Carolina mit 10%-15% Vorsprung gewinnen?

19%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„South Carolina Special Senate Republican Primary: First Round Margin of Victory" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 10 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Graham Nordone 5–10%" mit 98%, gefolgt von „Graham Nordone 10–15%" mit 2%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 98¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 98% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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