The near-certain trader consensus against Trump renaming the Strait of Hormuz by May 31 stems from the complete absence of any official executive action, White House announcement, or legislative initiative on the matter. International geographic features like straits fall under established diplomatic protocols involving multiple sovereign states and bodies such as the International Hydrographic Organization, making unilateral U.S. presidential renaming structurally implausible without broad multilateral agreement. No recent policy signals, cabinet directives, or diplomatic statements have indicated movement in this direction. While an unexpected executive order or symbolic gesture in the final days could theoretically alter the timeline, the short remaining window and lack of preparatory steps leave the implied probability heavily weighted toward the status quo.