Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions stemming from the February 2026 conflict have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at single-digit daily levels, far below the pre-war average of roughly 130 vessels, as major carriers including Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk maintain suspensions amid security risks and elevated war-risk premiums. This constriction has tightened global oil supply chains, with approximately 20 percent of seaborne crude and significant LNG volumes affected, contributing to elevated Brent crude prices and sharply higher tanker freight rates. Diplomatic talks and intermittent U.S. naval escorts have enabled a handful of transits in early May, yet persistent GNSS interference, insurance constraints, and Iranian vetting requirements continue to suppress volumes. Traders monitoring the market through May 31 will focus on any breakthrough in ceasefire negotiations or expanded escort operations that could materially lift daily crossings and ease energy-market volatility.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$484,923 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
20+
47%
40+
8%
60+
6%
80+
4%
$484,923 Vol.
20+
$111,906 Vol.
47%
40+
$122,649 Vol.
8%
60+
$68,331 Vol.
6%
80+
$182,038 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions stemming from the February 2026 conflict have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at single-digit daily levels, far below the pre-war average of roughly 130 vessels, as major carriers including Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk maintain suspensions amid security risks and elevated war-risk premiums. This constriction has tightened global oil supply chains, with approximately 20 percent of seaborne crude and significant LNG volumes affected, contributing to elevated Brent crude prices and sharply higher tanker freight rates. Diplomatic talks and intermittent U.S. naval escorts have enabled a handful of transits in early May, yet persistent GNSS interference, insurance constraints, and Iranian vetting requirements continue to suppress volumes. Traders monitoring the market through May 31 will focus on any breakthrough in ceasefire negotiations or expanded escort operations that could materially lift daily crossings and ease energy-market volatility.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
Volumen
$484,923Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions stemming from the February 2026 conflict have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at single-digit daily levels, far below the pre-war average of roughly 130 vessels, as major carriers including Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk maintain suspensions amid security risks and elevated war-risk premiums. This constriction has tightened global oil supply chains, with approximately 20 percent of seaborne crude and significant LNG volumes affected, contributing to elevated Brent crude prices and sharply higher tanker freight rates. Diplomatic talks and intermittent U.S. naval escorts have enabled a handful of transits in early May, yet persistent GNSS interference, insurance constraints, and Iranian vetting requirements continue to suppress volumes. Traders monitoring the market through May 31 will focus on any breakthrough in ceasefire negotiations or expanded escort operations that could materially lift daily crossings and ease energy-market volatility.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$484,923Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions stemming from the February 2026 conflict have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at single-digit daily levels, far below the pre-war average of roughly 130 vessels, as major carriers including Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk maintain suspensions amid security risks and elevated war-risk premiums. This constriction has tightened global oil supply chains, with approximately 20 percent of seaborne crude and significant LNG volumes affected, contributing to elevated Brent crude prices and sharply higher tanker freight rates. Diplomatic talks and intermittent U.S. naval escorts have enabled a handful of transits in early May, yet persistent GNSS interference, insurance constraints, and Iranian vetting requirements continue to suppress volumes. Traders monitoring the market through May 31 will focus on any breakthrough in ceasefire negotiations or expanded escort operations that could materially lift daily crossings and ease energy-market volatility.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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