The regime’s demonstrated resilience amid the 2026 US-Israel military campaign and the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment. Despite extensive strikes on military infrastructure, leadership losses, and renewed 2025-2026 protests met with mass arrests and executions, Iranian institutions under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintained control and secured a fragile ceasefire by early May. Recent assessments from US intelligence and regional analysts indicate the regime has adapted by consolidating hardline elements, pursuing limited diplomatic outreach, and receiving external military rebuilding support, without triggering widespread defections or collapse. These developments underscore significant structural barriers to regime change before 2027, even as ongoing negotiations and internal pressures introduce limited uncertainty.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$17,911,374 Vol.
$17,911,374 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$17,911,374 Vol.
$17,911,374 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The regime’s demonstrated resilience amid the 2026 US-Israel military campaign and the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment. Despite extensive strikes on military infrastructure, leadership losses, and renewed 2025-2026 protests met with mass arrests and executions, Iranian institutions under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintained control and secured a fragile ceasefire by early May. Recent assessments from US intelligence and regional analysts indicate the regime has adapted by consolidating hardline elements, pursuing limited diplomatic outreach, and receiving external military rebuilding support, without triggering widespread defections or collapse. These developments underscore significant structural barriers to regime change before 2027, even as ongoing negotiations and internal pressures introduce limited uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volumen
$17,911,374Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The regime’s demonstrated resilience amid the 2026 US-Israel military campaign and the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment. Despite extensive strikes on military infrastructure, leadership losses, and renewed 2025-2026 protests met with mass arrests and executions, Iranian institutions under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintained control and secured a fragile ceasefire by early May. Recent assessments from US intelligence and regional analysts indicate the regime has adapted by consolidating hardline elements, pursuing limited diplomatic outreach, and receiving external military rebuilding support, without triggering widespread defections or collapse. These developments underscore significant structural barriers to regime change before 2027, even as ongoing negotiations and internal pressures introduce limited uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$17,911,374Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The regime’s demonstrated resilience amid the 2026 US-Israel military campaign and the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment. Despite extensive strikes on military infrastructure, leadership losses, and renewed 2025-2026 protests met with mass arrests and executions, Iranian institutions under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintained control and secured a fragile ceasefire by early May. Recent assessments from US intelligence and regional analysts indicate the regime has adapted by consolidating hardline elements, pursuing limited diplomatic outreach, and receiving external military rebuilding support, without triggering widespread defections or collapse. These developments underscore significant structural barriers to regime change before 2027, even as ongoing negotiations and internal pressures introduce limited uncertainty.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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