The regime's institutional resilience amid the fragile ceasefire following the 2026 US-Iran conflict and the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has reinforced trader expectations that the Islamic Republic will endure through 2026. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has sustained internal order despite earlier economic protests, which authorities suppressed through arrests and rallies, while external military pressures including airstrikes on nuclear facilities failed to prompt widespread defections or renewed uprisings. Recent diplomatic moves, such as Iranian leaders proposing terms to shape hostilities on May 11, underscore continued central control, with Russia providing support for military rebuilding and Tehran issuing warnings of retaliatory actions against any ceasefire breach. These developments align with the 83.5% implied probability on "No," reflecting high barriers to regime collapse before 2027 absent major internal fractures or escalated external intervention.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$17,913,221 Vol.
$17,913,221 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$17,913,221 Vol.
$17,913,221 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The regime's institutional resilience amid the fragile ceasefire following the 2026 US-Iran conflict and the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has reinforced trader expectations that the Islamic Republic will endure through 2026. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has sustained internal order despite earlier economic protests, which authorities suppressed through arrests and rallies, while external military pressures including airstrikes on nuclear facilities failed to prompt widespread defections or renewed uprisings. Recent diplomatic moves, such as Iranian leaders proposing terms to shape hostilities on May 11, underscore continued central control, with Russia providing support for military rebuilding and Tehran issuing warnings of retaliatory actions against any ceasefire breach. These developments align with the 83.5% implied probability on "No," reflecting high barriers to regime collapse before 2027 absent major internal fractures or escalated external intervention.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volumen
$17,913,221Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The regime's institutional resilience amid the fragile ceasefire following the 2026 US-Iran conflict and the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has reinforced trader expectations that the Islamic Republic will endure through 2026. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has sustained internal order despite earlier economic protests, which authorities suppressed through arrests and rallies, while external military pressures including airstrikes on nuclear facilities failed to prompt widespread defections or renewed uprisings. Recent diplomatic moves, such as Iranian leaders proposing terms to shape hostilities on May 11, underscore continued central control, with Russia providing support for military rebuilding and Tehran issuing warnings of retaliatory actions against any ceasefire breach. These developments align with the 83.5% implied probability on "No," reflecting high barriers to regime collapse before 2027 absent major internal fractures or escalated external intervention.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$17,913,751Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The regime's institutional resilience amid the fragile ceasefire following the 2026 US-Iran conflict and the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has reinforced trader expectations that the Islamic Republic will endure through 2026. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has sustained internal order despite earlier economic protests, which authorities suppressed through arrests and rallies, while external military pressures including airstrikes on nuclear facilities failed to prompt widespread defections or renewed uprisings. Recent diplomatic moves, such as Iranian leaders proposing terms to shape hostilities on May 11, underscore continued central control, with Russia providing support for military rebuilding and Tehran issuing warnings of retaliatory actions against any ceasefire breach. These developments align with the 83.5% implied probability on "No," reflecting high barriers to regime collapse before 2027 absent major internal fractures or escalated external intervention.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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