The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience after the February 2026 Israeli-U.S. strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and degraded military infrastructure underpins the high trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role with unusual speed, security forces suppressed subsequent nationwide protests through early 2026 without fracturing, and the state has since consolidated under hardline military and clerical leadership while engaging in intermittent diplomacy over the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues. With only three months remaining and no verified indicators of imminent elite defection, mass defections in the Revolutionary Guards, or coordinated opposition takeover, recent economic strain and limited campus unrest have not shifted the balance toward rapid regime change.