Recent upward revisions in economist forecasts have anchored trader sentiment around the 30-34.9% range for Argentina’s 2026 annual inflation, now carrying 29.3% implied probability on Polymarket. The latest central bank survey lifted the median year-end projection to 30.5% after March’s 3.4% monthly print and elevated fuel and regulated-price pressures pushed the April year-over-year rate to 32.4%. This places the two leading buckets—30.0-34.9% and 25.0-29.9%—in close contention, reflecting uncertainty over whether ongoing disinflation under the Milei administration can offset persistent inertia and external risks. Traders are watching the May CPI release and subsequent FOMC-adjacent commodity moves for clearer signals on whether the trajectory settles below or above 30%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado30.0-34.9% 23.5%
40-44,9% 21.8%
25-29,9% 20%
20-24,9% 17.6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
10 ene 2027
<20%
7%
20-24,9%
18%
25-29,9%
27%
30.0-34.9%
30%
35–39.9%
16%
40-44,9%
22%
45%+
8%
30.0-34.9% 23.5%
40-44,9% 21.8%
25-29,9% 20%
20-24,9% 17.6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
10 ene 2027
<20%
$2,516 Vol.
7%
20-24,9%
$1,429 Vol.
18%
25-29,9%
$1,626 Vol.
27%
30.0-34.9%
$976 Vol.
30%
35–39.9%
$1,121 Vol.
16%
40-44,9%
$934 Vol.
22%
45%+
$1,164 Vol.
8%
This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent upward revisions in economist forecasts have anchored trader sentiment around the 30-34.9% range for Argentina’s 2026 annual inflation, now carrying 29.3% implied probability on Polymarket. The latest central bank survey lifted the median year-end projection to 30.5% after March’s 3.4% monthly print and elevated fuel and regulated-price pressures pushed the April year-over-year rate to 32.4%. This places the two leading buckets—30.0-34.9% and 25.0-29.9%—in close contention, reflecting uncertainty over whether ongoing disinflation under the Milei administration can offset persistent inertia and external risks. Traders are watching the May CPI release and subsequent FOMC-adjacent commodity moves for clearer signals on whether the trajectory settles below or above 30%.
This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:15 AM ET
Volumen
$9,766Fecha de finalización
10 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent upward revisions in economist forecasts have anchored trader sentiment around the 30-34.9% range for Argentina’s 2026 annual inflation, now carrying 29.3% implied probability on Polymarket. The latest central bank survey lifted the median year-end projection to 30.5% after March’s 3.4% monthly print and elevated fuel and regulated-price pressures pushed the April year-over-year rate to 32.4%. This places the two leading buckets—30.0-34.9% and 25.0-29.9%—in close contention, reflecting uncertainty over whether ongoing disinflation under the Milei administration can offset persistent inertia and external risks. Traders are watching the May CPI release and subsequent FOMC-adjacent commodity moves for clearer signals on whether the trajectory settles below or above 30%.
This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$9,766Fecha de finalización
10 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent upward revisions in economist forecasts have anchored trader sentiment around the 30-34.9% range for Argentina’s 2026 annual inflation, now carrying 29.3% implied probability on Polymarket. The latest central bank survey lifted the median year-end projection to 30.5% after March’s 3.4% monthly print and elevated fuel and regulated-price pressures pushed the April year-over-year rate to 32.4%. This places the two leading buckets—30.0-34.9% and 25.0-29.9%—in close contention, reflecting uncertainty over whether ongoing disinflation under the Milei administration can offset persistent inertia and external risks. Traders are watching the May CPI release and subsequent FOMC-adjacent commodity moves for clearer signals on whether the trajectory settles below or above 30%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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