California's 14th Congressional District, a safe Democratic seat in the Bay Area with heavy Democratic voter registration, shows trader consensus heavily favoring the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability for the November 2026 general election winner. Incumbent Rep. Eric Swalwell's April 13 resignation amid sexual misconduct allegations opened the seat, spurring a crowded June 2 top-two primary where Democrats Rakhi Israni ($2 million raised), Aisha Wahab, and Melissa Hernandez lead in fundraising over underfunded Republicans like Wendy Huang and Dena Maldonado. This financial edge and district history—prior easy Democratic holds—drive the odds, with the top-two outcome likely pitting two Democrats against each other. A Republican primary upset, national midterm wave, or scandal on the Democratic nominee could challenge this, though barriers remain high ahead of early voting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-14 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-14 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$25,004 Vol.
$25,004 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
93%
Partido Republicano
7%
$25,004 Vol.
$25,004 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$7,920 Vol.
93%
Partido Republicano
$17,084 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th Congressional District, a safe Democratic seat in the Bay Area with heavy Democratic voter registration, shows trader consensus heavily favoring the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability for the November 2026 general election winner. Incumbent Rep. Eric Swalwell's April 13 resignation amid sexual misconduct allegations opened the seat, spurring a crowded June 2 top-two primary where Democrats Rakhi Israni ($2 million raised), Aisha Wahab, and Melissa Hernandez lead in fundraising over underfunded Republicans like Wendy Huang and Dena Maldonado. This financial edge and district history—prior easy Democratic holds—drive the odds, with the top-two outcome likely pitting two Democrats against each other. A Republican primary upset, national midterm wave, or scandal on the Democratic nominee could challenge this, though barriers remain high ahead of early voting.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volumen
$25,004Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th Congressional District, a safe Democratic seat in the Bay Area with heavy Democratic voter registration, shows trader consensus heavily favoring the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability for the November 2026 general election winner. Incumbent Rep. Eric Swalwell's April 13 resignation amid sexual misconduct allegations opened the seat, spurring a crowded June 2 top-two primary where Democrats Rakhi Israni ($2 million raised), Aisha Wahab, and Melissa Hernandez lead in fundraising over underfunded Republicans like Wendy Huang and Dena Maldonado. This financial edge and district history—prior easy Democratic holds—drive the odds, with the top-two outcome likely pitting two Democrats against each other. A Republican primary upset, national midterm wave, or scandal on the Democratic nominee could challenge this, though barriers remain high ahead of early voting.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$25,004Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 14th Congressional District, a safe Democratic seat in the Bay Area with heavy Democratic voter registration, shows trader consensus heavily favoring the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability for the November 2026 general election winner. Incumbent Rep. Eric Swalwell's April 13 resignation amid sexual misconduct allegations opened the seat, spurring a crowded June 2 top-two primary where Democrats Rakhi Israni ($2 million raised), Aisha Wahab, and Melissa Hernandez lead in fundraising over underfunded Republicans like Wendy Huang and Dena Maldonado. This financial edge and district history—prior easy Democratic holds—drive the odds, with the top-two outcome likely pitting two Democrats against each other. A Republican primary upset, national midterm wave, or scandal on the Democratic nominee could challenge this, though barriers remain high ahead of early voting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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