Kansas’s 4th Congressional District maintains a strong Republican tilt reflected in its R+12 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Ron Estes secured renomination on August 4 with over 80 percent of the primary vote, while Democrat Katy Tyndell emerged from a crowded but low-fundraising field to face him in November. Race raters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican, citing the district’s structural advantages and Estes’s substantial fundraising lead. Trader consensus at 92 percent for Republicans aligns with these fundamentals. Shifts would require a major national environment change, a significant scandal, or redistricting before Election Day, none of which are currently indicated by filings or polling trends.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoKS-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
KS-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$68,204 Vol.
$68,204 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
92%
Partido Demócrata
7%
$68,204 Vol.
$68,204 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$39,556 Vol.
92%
Partido Demócrata
$28,648 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kansas’s 4th Congressional District maintains a strong Republican tilt reflected in its R+12 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Ron Estes secured renomination on August 4 with over 80 percent of the primary vote, while Democrat Katy Tyndell emerged from a crowded but low-fundraising field to face him in November. Race raters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican, citing the district’s structural advantages and Estes’s substantial fundraising lead. Trader consensus at 92 percent for Republicans aligns with these fundamentals. Shifts would require a major national environment change, a significant scandal, or redistricting before Election Day, none of which are currently indicated by filings or polling trends.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$68,204Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kansas’s 4th Congressional District maintains a strong Republican tilt reflected in its R+12 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Ron Estes secured renomination on August 4 with over 80 percent of the primary vote, while Democrat Katy Tyndell emerged from a crowded but low-fundraising field to face him in November. Race raters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican, citing the district’s structural advantages and Estes’s substantial fundraising lead. Trader consensus at 92 percent for Republicans aligns with these fundamentals. Shifts would require a major national environment change, a significant scandal, or redistricting before Election Day, none of which are currently indicated by filings or polling trends.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$68,204Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kansas’s 4th Congressional District maintains a strong Republican tilt reflected in its R+12 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Ron Estes secured renomination on August 4 with over 80 percent of the primary vote, while Democrat Katy Tyndell emerged from a crowded but low-fundraising field to face him in November. Race raters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican, citing the district’s structural advantages and Estes’s substantial fundraising lead. Trader consensus at 92 percent for Republicans aligns with these fundamentals. Shifts would require a major national environment change, a significant scandal, or redistricting before Election Day, none of which are currently indicated by filings or polling trends.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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