California's 15th congressional district, held by incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin since 2023, features a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 and consistently delivers strong Democratic margins in presidential and House races. Recent top-two primary results on June 2, 2026, advanced Mullin with roughly 65 percent alongside Republican Charles Hoelter, underscoring limited intra-party competition and weak opposition fundraising. High Democratic voter registration, favorable demographics in the San Mateo–South San Francisco area, and the district's structural lean combine to produce the current trader consensus. A Democratic general-election victory on November 3 would require only a modest share of the vote given historical turnout patterns. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a severe national Republican wave, an unexpected scandal or health event involving the incumbent, or unusually high crossover voting, though each would need to overcome the district's established partisan baseline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-15 House Election Winner
CA-15 House Election Winner
$120,424 Vol.
$120,424 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
4%
$120,424 Vol.
$120,424 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$93,288 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$27,136 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 15th congressional district, held by incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin since 2023, features a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 and consistently delivers strong Democratic margins in presidential and House races. Recent top-two primary results on June 2, 2026, advanced Mullin with roughly 65 percent alongside Republican Charles Hoelter, underscoring limited intra-party competition and weak opposition fundraising. High Democratic voter registration, favorable demographics in the San Mateo–South San Francisco area, and the district's structural lean combine to produce the current trader consensus. A Democratic general-election victory on November 3 would require only a modest share of the vote given historical turnout patterns. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a severe national Republican wave, an unexpected scandal or health event involving the incumbent, or unusually high crossover voting, though each would need to overcome the district's established partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volumen
$120,424Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 15th congressional district, held by incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin since 2023, features a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 and consistently delivers strong Democratic margins in presidential and House races. Recent top-two primary results on June 2, 2026, advanced Mullin with roughly 65 percent alongside Republican Charles Hoelter, underscoring limited intra-party competition and weak opposition fundraising. High Democratic voter registration, favorable demographics in the San Mateo–South San Francisco area, and the district's structural lean combine to produce the current trader consensus. A Democratic general-election victory on November 3 would require only a modest share of the vote given historical turnout patterns. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a severe national Republican wave, an unexpected scandal or health event involving the incumbent, or unusually high crossover voting, though each would need to overcome the district's established partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$120,424Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 15th congressional district, held by incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin since 2023, features a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 and consistently delivers strong Democratic margins in presidential and House races. Recent top-two primary results on June 2, 2026, advanced Mullin with roughly 65 percent alongside Republican Charles Hoelter, underscoring limited intra-party competition and weak opposition fundraising. High Democratic voter registration, favorable demographics in the San Mateo–South San Francisco area, and the district's structural lean combine to produce the current trader consensus. A Democratic general-election victory on November 3 would require only a modest share of the vote given historical turnout patterns. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include a severe national Republican wave, an unexpected scandal or health event involving the incumbent, or unusually high crossover voting, though each would need to overcome the district's established partisan baseline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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