**Forecast models and seasonal patterns position 28–29°C as the most probable range for Busan’s daily maximum on June 16.** Current guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global ensembles shows a stable, post-frontal high-pressure regime with light southwesterly flow and moderate humidity, supporting daytime highs near 27–29°C. This aligns with mid-June climatology for Busan, where ocean moderation typically caps averages around 25–26°C and extremes above 30°C remain uncommon before the East Asian monsoon strengthens. Recent short-range updates have shown little day-to-day shift, keeping the distribution tight around 28°C (37.5% market-implied) and 29°C (23.5%), while lower probabilities for 30°C+ reflect the low likelihood of rapid warming or clear-sky amplification in the next 48 hours. Traders are weighting official KMA guidance and ensemble consensus most heavily, with resolution hinging on the official 09:00–18:00 observation window.