**The overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability for 30°C reflects the Hong Kong Observatory’s official maximum temperature recording for June 12, 2026, which fell squarely in that range.** This outcome aligns with the territory’s typical early-June climatology under above-normal seasonal temperatures projected by the HKO, driven by subtropical ridge influences and urban heat-island effects that commonly produce daily highs near 30–31 °C. With the market date now passed, real-time observational data from the agency’s headquarters and automatic stations have eliminated uncertainty for traders. Only an improbable post-hoc data revision or instrument calibration error could alter resolution; otherwise, the skin-in-the-game consensus correctly priced the confirmed measurement.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12?
30°C 99.9%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$220,173 Vol.
$220,173 Vol.
12 jun 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
100%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
30°C 99.9%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$220,173 Vol.
$220,173 Vol.
12 jun 2026
23°C or below
$2,740 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$806 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,838 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$9,209 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$20,048 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$29,070 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$25,571 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$45,028 Vol.
100%
31°C
$35,994 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$28,565 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$21,303 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**The overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability for 30°C reflects the Hong Kong Observatory’s official maximum temperature recording for June 12, 2026, which fell squarely in that range.**
This outcome aligns with the territory’s typical early-June climatology under above-normal seasonal temperatures projected by the HKO, driven by subtropical ridge influences and urban heat-island effects that commonly produce daily highs near 30–31 °C. With the market date now passed, real-time observational data from the agency’s headquarters and automatic stations have eliminated uncertainty for traders.
Only an improbable post-hoc data revision or instrument calibration error could alter resolution; otherwise, the skin-in-the-game consensus correctly priced the confirmed measurement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jun 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volumen
$220,173Fecha de finalización
12 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**The overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability for 30°C reflects the Hong Kong Observatory’s official maximum temperature recording for June 12, 2026, which fell squarely in that range.**
This outcome aligns with the territory’s typical early-June climatology under above-normal seasonal temperatures projected by the HKO, driven by subtropical ridge influences and urban heat-island effects that commonly produce daily highs near 30–31 °C. With the market date now passed, real-time observational data from the agency’s headquarters and automatic stations have eliminated uncertainty for traders.
Only an improbable post-hoc data revision or instrument calibration error could alter resolution; otherwise, the skin-in-the-game consensus correctly priced the confirmed measurement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$220,173Fecha de finalización
12 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability for 30°C reflects the Hong Kong Observatory’s official maximum temperature recording for June 12, 2026, which fell squarely in that range.** This outcome aligns with the territory’s typical early-June climatology under above-normal seasonal temperatures projected by the HKO, driven by subtropical ridge influences and urban heat-island effects that commonly produce daily highs near 30–31 °C. With the market date now passed, real-time observational data from the agency’s headquarters and automatic stations have eliminated uncertainty for traders. Only an improbable post-hoc data revision or instrument calibration error could alter resolution; otherwise, the skin-in-the-game consensus correctly priced the confirmed measurement.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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