**Current meteorological observations and short-range forecasts point to a cooler-than-typical peak on 15 August, with widespread cloud cover, scattered showers, and a post-heatwave cooling trend limiting daytime heating across the Madrid region.** Official guidance from sources such as the Spanish meteorological service and global models shows surface highs constrained near or below 30 °C, well under the August climatological average of roughly 32 °C. Yesterday’s readings near 37 °C created a sharp contrast that traders quickly priced in, and the implied probability above 90 % for 30 °C or lower reflects high-confidence model consensus on suppressed insolation and boundary-layer moisture. Resolution hinges on the official station maximum; any unexpected clearing or stronger subsidence could push readings higher, but present conditions make such an outcome unlikely.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 15 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 15 de agosto?
30°C or below 99.2%
32°C <1%
31°C <1%
33°C <1%
$163,028 Vol.
$163,028 Vol.
15 ago 2026
30°C or below
99%
31°C
1%
32°C
1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
30°C or below 99.2%
32°C <1%
31°C <1%
33°C <1%
$163,028 Vol.
$163,028 Vol.
15 ago 2026
30°C or below
$33,393 Vol.
99%
31°C
$26,792 Vol.
1%
32°C
$24,212 Vol.
1%
33°C
$22,195 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$17,933 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$16,292 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$13,727 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$5,595 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$1,790 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$840 Vol.
<1%
40°C or higher
$260 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current meteorological observations and short-range forecasts point to a cooler-than-typical peak on 15 August, with widespread cloud cover, scattered showers, and a post-heatwave cooling trend limiting daytime heating across the Madrid region.** Official guidance from sources such as the Spanish meteorological service and global models shows surface highs constrained near or below 30 °C, well under the August climatological average of roughly 32 °C. Yesterday’s readings near 37 °C created a sharp contrast that traders quickly priced in, and the implied probability above 90 % for 30 °C or lower reflects high-confidence model consensus on suppressed insolation and boundary-layer moisture. Resolution hinges on the official station maximum; any unexpected clearing or stronger subsidence could push readings higher, but present conditions make such an outcome unlikely.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volumen
$163,028Fecha de finalización
15 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current meteorological observations and short-range forecasts point to a cooler-than-typical peak on 15 August, with widespread cloud cover, scattered showers, and a post-heatwave cooling trend limiting daytime heating across the Madrid region.** Official guidance from sources such as the Spanish meteorological service and global models shows surface highs constrained near or below 30 °C, well under the August climatological average of roughly 32 °C. Yesterday’s readings near 37 °C created a sharp contrast that traders quickly priced in, and the implied probability above 90 % for 30 °C or lower reflects high-confidence model consensus on suppressed insolation and boundary-layer moisture. Resolution hinges on the official station maximum; any unexpected clearing or stronger subsidence could push readings higher, but present conditions make such an outcome unlikely.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$163,028Fecha de finalización
15 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current meteorological observations and short-range forecasts point to a cooler-than-typical peak on 15 August, with widespread cloud cover, scattered showers, and a post-heatwave cooling trend limiting daytime heating across the Madrid region.** Official guidance from sources such as the Spanish meteorological service and global models shows surface highs constrained near or below 30 °C, well under the August climatological average of roughly 32 °C. Yesterday’s readings near 37 °C created a sharp contrast that traders quickly priced in, and the implied probability above 90 % for 30 °C or lower reflects high-confidence model consensus on suppressed insolation and boundary-layer moisture. Resolution hinges on the official station maximum; any unexpected clearing or stronger subsidence could push readings higher, but present conditions make such an outcome unlikely.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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