Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models project afternoon highs in Taipei on May 18 between 29°C and 32°C under a building subtropical ridge, driving the closely matched market probabilities across those outcomes. Mid-May climatology in northern Taiwan typically features daily maxima near 29–30°C amid rising humidity and light winds, though local urban heat island effects in the city can push readings 1–2°C higher on clearer days. Potential afternoon convection or increased cloud cover introduces the main uncertainty, as any showers could cap the peak or allow stronger insolation to push temperatures toward 33°C. The Central Weather Administration’s next model runs will clarify steering patterns and instability ahead of the daily maximum recorded at official stations.