Recent severe weather outbreaks, including a multi-day event across the Southeast and Plains from May 6–7 that produced confirmed EF3 and EF2 tornadoes in Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Texas, have lifted preliminary May counts toward the upper end of the 230–289 range. The Storm Prediction Center’s ongoing Day 1–3 outlooks show enhanced to moderate risk areas through mid-May, driven by favorable jet-stream positioning and moisture return that favor discrete supercells. With roughly half the month remaining, model consensus points to continued above-normal activity through late May, though exact totals hinge on the frequency of high-shear, low-CAPE setups versus widespread linear systems. Historical climatology places the May average near 265, leaving the closely matched market-implied odds centered on whether additional outbreaks materialize or activity moderates as the jet stream shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHow many Tornadoes in the US in May?
How many Tornadoes in the US in May?
<200 42%
200–229 42%
260–289 38%
230–259 34%
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 jun 2026
<200
37%
200–229
42%
230–259
34%
260–289
38%
290–319
16%
320–349
11%
350–379
11%
380–410
7%
410+
10%
<200 42%
200–229 42%
260–289 38%
230–259 34%
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 jun 2026
<200
$230 Vol.
37%
200–229
$0 Vol.
42%
230–259
$0 Vol.
34%
260–289
$0 Vol.
38%
290–319
$0 Vol.
16%
320–349
$10 Vol.
11%
350–379
$10 Vol.
11%
380–410
$0 Vol.
7%
410+
$0 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent severe weather outbreaks, including a multi-day event across the Southeast and Plains from May 6–7 that produced confirmed EF3 and EF2 tornadoes in Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Texas, have lifted preliminary May counts toward the upper end of the 230–289 range. The Storm Prediction Center’s ongoing Day 1–3 outlooks show enhanced to moderate risk areas through mid-May, driven by favorable jet-stream positioning and moisture return that favor discrete supercells. With roughly half the month remaining, model consensus points to continued above-normal activity through late May, though exact totals hinge on the frequency of high-shear, low-CAPE setups versus widespread linear systems. Historical climatology places the May average near 265, leaving the closely matched market-implied odds centered on whether additional outbreaks materialize or activity moderates as the jet stream shifts.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ET
Volumen
$250Fecha de finalización
8 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent severe weather outbreaks, including a multi-day event across the Southeast and Plains from May 6–7 that produced confirmed EF3 and EF2 tornadoes in Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Texas, have lifted preliminary May counts toward the upper end of the 230–289 range. The Storm Prediction Center’s ongoing Day 1–3 outlooks show enhanced to moderate risk areas through mid-May, driven by favorable jet-stream positioning and moisture return that favor discrete supercells. With roughly half the month remaining, model consensus points to continued above-normal activity through late May, though exact totals hinge on the frequency of high-shear, low-CAPE setups versus widespread linear systems. Historical climatology places the May average near 265, leaving the closely matched market-implied odds centered on whether additional outbreaks materialize or activity moderates as the jet stream shifts.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volumen
$250Fecha de finalización
8 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent severe weather outbreaks, including a multi-day event across the Southeast and Plains from May 6–7 that produced confirmed EF3 and EF2 tornadoes in Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Texas, have lifted preliminary May counts toward the upper end of the 230–289 range. The Storm Prediction Center’s ongoing Day 1–3 outlooks show enhanced to moderate risk areas through mid-May, driven by favorable jet-stream positioning and moisture return that favor discrete supercells. With roughly half the month remaining, model consensus points to continued above-normal activity through late May, though exact totals hinge on the frequency of high-shear, low-CAPE setups versus widespread linear systems. Historical climatology places the May average near 265, leaving the closely matched market-implied odds centered on whether additional outbreaks materialize or activity moderates as the jet stream shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes