The strong Democratic lean of Illinois's 4th congressional district, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent historical margins exceeding 30 points, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94%. An open seat following the retirement of longtime incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García has allowed his chief of staff, Patty Garcia, to secure the nomination after the March 17, 2026, primaries with minimal intra-party resistance. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo faces structural barriers in a district where Democratic candidates routinely dominate turnout and fundraising. All major forecasters rate the race Solid D or Safe D. Late developments such as a major scandal, candidate health event, or an unprecedented national partisan swing could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain rare in districts with this level of entrenched advantage.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoIL-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
IL-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$56,322 Vol.
$56,322 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
94%
Partido Republicano
5%
$56,322 Vol.
$56,322 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$40,680 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$15,642 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of Illinois's 4th congressional district, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent historical margins exceeding 30 points, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94%. An open seat following the retirement of longtime incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García has allowed his chief of staff, Patty Garcia, to secure the nomination after the March 17, 2026, primaries with minimal intra-party resistance. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo faces structural barriers in a district where Democratic candidates routinely dominate turnout and fundraising. All major forecasters rate the race Solid D or Safe D. Late developments such as a major scandal, candidate health event, or an unprecedented national partisan swing could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain rare in districts with this level of entrenched advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volumen
$56,322Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of Illinois's 4th congressional district, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent historical margins exceeding 30 points, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94%. An open seat following the retirement of longtime incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García has allowed his chief of staff, Patty Garcia, to secure the nomination after the March 17, 2026, primaries with minimal intra-party resistance. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo faces structural barriers in a district where Democratic candidates routinely dominate turnout and fundraising. All major forecasters rate the race Solid D or Safe D. Late developments such as a major scandal, candidate health event, or an unprecedented national partisan swing could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain rare in districts with this level of entrenched advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$56,322Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Democratic lean of Illinois's 4th congressional district, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent historical margins exceeding 30 points, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 94%. An open seat following the retirement of longtime incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García has allowed his chief of staff, Patty Garcia, to secure the nomination after the March 17, 2026, primaries with minimal intra-party resistance. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo faces structural barriers in a district where Democratic candidates routinely dominate turnout and fundraising. All major forecasters rate the race Solid D or Safe D. Late developments such as a major scandal, candidate health event, or an unprecedented national partisan swing could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain rare in districts with this level of entrenched advantage.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes