Recent short-range model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs points to a southeasterly wind surge clearing skies after Thursday's rain and cooler advection, producing an overnight minimum near 13°C on September 4 under partly clear conditions with dew points in the single digits. Strong 20–30 mph SE winds limit radiational cooling while advecting drier maritime air, keeping the low above typical early-spring values around 11°C yet short of warmer 15°C+ scenarios tied to delayed clearing. Ensemble spread remains modest for this 48-hour horizon, with traders assigning the highest implied probability to 13°C because localized topographic effects and exact wind timing introduce the narrow uncertainty separating it from nearby bins. Updated model guidance and surface observations over the next 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Ciudad del Cabo el 4 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en Ciudad del Cabo el 4 de septiembre?
6°C o menos 59%
10°C 49%
11°C 49%
12°C 49%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 sep 2026
6°C o menos
59%
7°C
15%
8°C
19%
9°C
20%
10°C
49%
11°C
49%
12°C
49%
13°C
32%
14°C
49%
15°C
49%
16°C o más
2%
6°C o menos 59%
10°C 49%
11°C 49%
12°C 49%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 sep 2026
6°C o menos
$0 Vol.
59%
7°C
$0 Vol.
15%
8°C
$0 Vol.
19%
9°C
$0 Vol.
20%
10°C
$0 Vol.
49%
11°C
$0 Vol.
49%
12°C
$0 Vol.
49%
13°C
$0 Vol.
32%
14°C
$0 Vol.
49%
15°C
$0 Vol.
49%
16°C o más
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs points to a southeasterly wind surge clearing skies after Thursday's rain and cooler advection, producing an overnight minimum near 13°C on September 4 under partly clear conditions with dew points in the single digits. Strong 20–30 mph SE winds limit radiational cooling while advecting drier maritime air, keeping the low above typical early-spring values around 11°C yet short of warmer 15°C+ scenarios tied to delayed clearing. Ensemble spread remains modest for this 48-hour horizon, with traders assigning the highest implied probability to 13°C because localized topographic effects and exact wind timing introduce the narrow uncertainty separating it from nearby bins. Updated model guidance and surface observations over the next 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
4 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs points to a southeasterly wind surge clearing skies after Thursday's rain and cooler advection, producing an overnight minimum near 13°C on September 4 under partly clear conditions with dew points in the single digits. Strong 20–30 mph SE winds limit radiational cooling while advecting drier maritime air, keeping the low above typical early-spring values around 11°C yet short of warmer 15°C+ scenarios tied to delayed clearing. Ensemble spread remains modest for this 48-hour horizon, with traders assigning the highest implied probability to 13°C because localized topographic effects and exact wind timing introduce the narrow uncertainty separating it from nearby bins. Updated model guidance and surface observations over the next 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
4 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs points to a southeasterly wind surge clearing skies after Thursday's rain and cooler advection, producing an overnight minimum near 13°C on September 4 under partly clear conditions with dew points in the single digits. Strong 20–30 mph SE winds limit radiational cooling while advecting drier maritime air, keeping the low above typical early-spring values around 11°C yet short of warmer 15°C+ scenarios tied to delayed clearing. Ensemble spread remains modest for this 48-hour horizon, with traders assigning the highest implied probability to 13°C because localized topographic effects and exact wind timing introduce the narrow uncertainty separating it from nearby bins. Updated model guidance and surface observations over the next 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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