Recent National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts for Chicago O’Hare and Midway indicate the September 4 minimum will likely settle in the low to mid-70s, supported by a warm, humid air mass with dew points near 70°F, overnight cloud cover, and a 40–50% chance of showers or thunderstorms that limit radiational cooling. This setup contrasts with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 61.5°F and explains why market-implied odds remain dispersed across mid-70s to low-80s brackets despite the short time horizon. Model runs show modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind direction, creating the narrowest resolution gaps between adjacent temperature bins; the next high-resolution update from the NWS Chicago office or 00Z GFS/ECMWF cycle could tighten consensus ahead of the 24-hour verification window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Chicago el 4 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en Chicago el 4 de septiembre?
86°F o más 93%
67°F o menos 92%
78-79°F 50%
80-81°F 50%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 sep 2026
67°F o menos
92%
68-69°F
49%
70-71°F
27%
72-73°F
49%
74-75°F
28%
76-77°F
49%
78-79°F
50%
80-81°F
50%
82-83 °F
49%
84-85°F
49%
86°F o más
93%
86°F o más 93%
67°F o menos 92%
78-79°F 50%
80-81°F 50%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 sep 2026
67°F o menos
$0 Vol.
92%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
49%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
27%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
49%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
28%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
49%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
50%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
50%
82-83 °F
$0 Vol.
49%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
49%
86°F o más
$0 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts for Chicago O’Hare and Midway indicate the September 4 minimum will likely settle in the low to mid-70s, supported by a warm, humid air mass with dew points near 70°F, overnight cloud cover, and a 40–50% chance of showers or thunderstorms that limit radiational cooling. This setup contrasts with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 61.5°F and explains why market-implied odds remain dispersed across mid-70s to low-80s brackets despite the short time horizon. Model runs show modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind direction, creating the narrowest resolution gaps between adjacent temperature bins; the next high-resolution update from the NWS Chicago office or 00Z GFS/ECMWF cycle could tighten consensus ahead of the 24-hour verification window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
4 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts for Chicago O’Hare and Midway indicate the September 4 minimum will likely settle in the low to mid-70s, supported by a warm, humid air mass with dew points near 70°F, overnight cloud cover, and a 40–50% chance of showers or thunderstorms that limit radiational cooling. This setup contrasts with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 61.5°F and explains why market-implied odds remain dispersed across mid-70s to low-80s brackets despite the short time horizon. Model runs show modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind direction, creating the narrowest resolution gaps between adjacent temperature bins; the next high-resolution update from the NWS Chicago office or 00Z GFS/ECMWF cycle could tighten consensus ahead of the 24-hour verification window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
4 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts for Chicago O’Hare and Midway indicate the September 4 minimum will likely settle in the low to mid-70s, supported by a warm, humid air mass with dew points near 70°F, overnight cloud cover, and a 40–50% chance of showers or thunderstorms that limit radiational cooling. This setup contrasts with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 61.5°F and explains why market-implied odds remain dispersed across mid-70s to low-80s brackets despite the short time horizon. Model runs show modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and wind direction, creating the narrowest resolution gaps between adjacent temperature bins; the next high-resolution update from the NWS Chicago office or 00Z GFS/ECMWF cycle could tighten consensus ahead of the 24-hour verification window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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