Recent official forecasts and ensemble model runs for Shanghai indicate nighttime lows of 25–26°C on August 16, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward those outcomes as traders incorporate data from the China Meteorological Administration and international guidance. Post-Typhoon Dolphin passage earlier in the month left elevated soil moisture and lingering cloud cover that moderates radiative cooling, while typical August humidity levels near 75–85% further limit overnight temperature drops. Historical climatology shows mean August minima around 25–26°C, with deviations driven mainly by wind patterns and frontal boundaries; current guidance shows limited model spread, supporting the 90%+ combined probability for 25–26°C. Updated short-range forecasts expected from regional centers in the next 12–24 hours could refine these implied probabilities if steering flows or moisture advection shift.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Shanghái el 16 de agosto?
¿Temperatura más baja en Shanghái el 16 de agosto?
26°C 51%
25°C 40%
27°C 5%
24°C 4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 ago 2026
20°C o menos
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
4%
25°C
40%
26°C
51%
27°C
5%
28°C
2%
29°C
<1%
30°C o más
<1%
26°C 51%
25°C 40%
27°C 5%
24°C 4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 ago 2026
20°C o menos
$97 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$87 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$92 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$536 Vol.
1%
24°C
$817 Vol.
4%
25°C
$1,912 Vol.
40%
26°C
$1,980 Vol.
51%
27°C
$217 Vol.
5%
28°C
$660 Vol.
2%
29°C
$87 Vol.
<1%
30°C o más
$84 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts and ensemble model runs for Shanghai indicate nighttime lows of 25–26°C on August 16, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward those outcomes as traders incorporate data from the China Meteorological Administration and international guidance. Post-Typhoon Dolphin passage earlier in the month left elevated soil moisture and lingering cloud cover that moderates radiative cooling, while typical August humidity levels near 75–85% further limit overnight temperature drops. Historical climatology shows mean August minima around 25–26°C, with deviations driven mainly by wind patterns and frontal boundaries; current guidance shows limited model spread, supporting the 90%+ combined probability for 25–26°C. Updated short-range forecasts expected from regional centers in the next 12–24 hours could refine these implied probabilities if steering flows or moisture advection shift.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volumen
$6,452Fecha de finalización
16 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts and ensemble model runs for Shanghai indicate nighttime lows of 25–26°C on August 16, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward those outcomes as traders incorporate data from the China Meteorological Administration and international guidance. Post-Typhoon Dolphin passage earlier in the month left elevated soil moisture and lingering cloud cover that moderates radiative cooling, while typical August humidity levels near 75–85% further limit overnight temperature drops. Historical climatology shows mean August minima around 25–26°C, with deviations driven mainly by wind patterns and frontal boundaries; current guidance shows limited model spread, supporting the 90%+ combined probability for 25–26°C. Updated short-range forecasts expected from regional centers in the next 12–24 hours could refine these implied probabilities if steering flows or moisture advection shift.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$6,452Fecha de finalización
16 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts and ensemble model runs for Shanghai indicate nighttime lows of 25–26°C on August 16, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward those outcomes as traders incorporate data from the China Meteorological Administration and international guidance. Post-Typhoon Dolphin passage earlier in the month left elevated soil moisture and lingering cloud cover that moderates radiative cooling, while typical August humidity levels near 75–85% further limit overnight temperature drops. Historical climatology shows mean August minima around 25–26°C, with deviations driven mainly by wind patterns and frontal boundaries; current guidance shows limited model spread, supporting the 90%+ combined probability for 25–26°C. Updated short-range forecasts expected from regional centers in the next 12–24 hours could refine these implied probabilities if steering flows or moisture advection shift.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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