Forecast models from sources including MetService-aligned runs and international ensembles project a minimum temperature in Wellington of 7–9 °C overnight into September 14 under partly cloudy skies, light northerly flow, and clear conditions favoring radiative cooling. This consensus drives the market’s clustering around 7 °C (29.5 %) and 8 °C (25.5 %), consistent with typical early-spring nocturnal minima near 9 °C but tempered by current stable high pressure. The 50 % implied probability on 4 °C or below captures tail risk from model spread, localized katabatic effects in the city’s topography, and any late forecast revisions. Key upcoming inputs include the next official MetService briefing and final high-resolution model cycles before midnight.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Wellington el 14 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en Wellington el 14 de septiembre?
4°C o menos 92%
7°C 53%
8°C 40%
6°C 22%
NUEVO
NUEVO
14 sep 2026
4°C o menos
92%
5°C
18%
6°C
22%
7°C
53%
8°C
23%
9°C
42%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C o más
<1%
4°C o menos 92%
7°C 53%
8°C 40%
6°C 22%
NUEVO
NUEVO
14 sep 2026
4°C o menos
$0 Vol.
92%
5°C
$0 Vol.
18%
6°C
$24 Vol.
22%
7°C
$10 Vol.
53%
8°C
$5 Vol.
23%
9°C
$5 Vol.
42%
10°C
$700 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
14°C o más
$110 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including MetService-aligned runs and international ensembles project a minimum temperature in Wellington of 7–9 °C overnight into September 14 under partly cloudy skies, light northerly flow, and clear conditions favoring radiative cooling. This consensus drives the market’s clustering around 7 °C (29.5 %) and 8 °C (25.5 %), consistent with typical early-spring nocturnal minima near 9 °C but tempered by current stable high pressure. The 50 % implied probability on 4 °C or below captures tail risk from model spread, localized katabatic effects in the city’s topography, and any late forecast revisions. Key upcoming inputs include the next official MetService briefing and final high-resolution model cycles before midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volumen
$859Fecha de finalización
14 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including MetService-aligned runs and international ensembles project a minimum temperature in Wellington of 7–9 °C overnight into September 14 under partly cloudy skies, light northerly flow, and clear conditions favoring radiative cooling. This consensus drives the market’s clustering around 7 °C (29.5 %) and 8 °C (25.5 %), consistent with typical early-spring nocturnal minima near 9 °C but tempered by current stable high pressure. The 50 % implied probability on 4 °C or below captures tail risk from model spread, localized katabatic effects in the city’s topography, and any late forecast revisions. Key upcoming inputs include the next official MetService briefing and final high-resolution model cycles before midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$859Fecha de finalización
14 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including MetService-aligned runs and international ensembles project a minimum temperature in Wellington of 7–9 °C overnight into September 14 under partly cloudy skies, light northerly flow, and clear conditions favoring radiative cooling. This consensus drives the market’s clustering around 7 °C (29.5 %) and 8 °C (25.5 %), consistent with typical early-spring nocturnal minima near 9 °C but tempered by current stable high pressure. The 50 % implied probability on 4 °C or below captures tail risk from model spread, localized katabatic effects in the city’s topography, and any late forecast revisions. Key upcoming inputs include the next official MetService briefing and final high-resolution model cycles before midnight.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes