New York’s 12th Congressional District in Manhattan has delivered Democratic general-election margins of 70 percent or more in recent cycles, reinforced by a Cook Political Report Solid D rating and D+33 partisan voting index. Jerry Nadler’s retirement opens the seat for a June 23 Democratic primary featuring Assembly members Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, Jack Schlossberg, and George Conway, yet no high-profile Republican challengers have surfaced. This structural advantage, combined with reliable Democratic turnout among older voters who dominate primary electorates, sustains the 93.5 percent trader consensus for a Democratic winner on November 3. A post-primary scandal, an unexpected GOP recruit, or a national midterm wave could narrow the gap, though the district’s partisan baseline makes such shifts improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-12
Ganador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-12
$17,171 Vol.
$17,171 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
94%
Partido Republicano
6%
$17,171 Vol.
$17,171 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$14,681 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$2,490 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th Congressional District in Manhattan has delivered Democratic general-election margins of 70 percent or more in recent cycles, reinforced by a Cook Political Report Solid D rating and D+33 partisan voting index. Jerry Nadler’s retirement opens the seat for a June 23 Democratic primary featuring Assembly members Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, Jack Schlossberg, and George Conway, yet no high-profile Republican challengers have surfaced. This structural advantage, combined with reliable Democratic turnout among older voters who dominate primary electorates, sustains the 93.5 percent trader consensus for a Democratic winner on November 3. A post-primary scandal, an unexpected GOP recruit, or a national midterm wave could narrow the gap, though the district’s partisan baseline makes such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$17,171Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th Congressional District in Manhattan has delivered Democratic general-election margins of 70 percent or more in recent cycles, reinforced by a Cook Political Report Solid D rating and D+33 partisan voting index. Jerry Nadler’s retirement opens the seat for a June 23 Democratic primary featuring Assembly members Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, Jack Schlossberg, and George Conway, yet no high-profile Republican challengers have surfaced. This structural advantage, combined with reliable Democratic turnout among older voters who dominate primary electorates, sustains the 93.5 percent trader consensus for a Democratic winner on November 3. A post-primary scandal, an unexpected GOP recruit, or a national midterm wave could narrow the gap, though the district’s partisan baseline makes such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$17,171Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York’s 12th Congressional District in Manhattan has delivered Democratic general-election margins of 70 percent or more in recent cycles, reinforced by a Cook Political Report Solid D rating and D+33 partisan voting index. Jerry Nadler’s retirement opens the seat for a June 23 Democratic primary featuring Assembly members Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, Jack Schlossberg, and George Conway, yet no high-profile Republican challengers have surfaced. This structural advantage, combined with reliable Democratic turnout among older voters who dominate primary electorates, sustains the 93.5 percent trader consensus for a Democratic winner on November 3. A post-primary scandal, an unexpected GOP recruit, or a national midterm wave could narrow the gap, though the district’s partisan baseline makes such shifts improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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