NY-12 is a reliably Democratic Manhattan-based district with longstanding partisan registration advantages and voting patterns that have produced consistent double-digit margins for Democratic nominees in recent cycles. Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary and enters the November general election against Republican Caroline Shinkle. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns the Democratic outcome overwhelming probability due to the district's structural lean, limited Republican organizational presence, and absence of recent polling or fundraising data indicating a competitive contest. Late developments that could narrow the gap remain narrow in scope and include an unforeseen candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or an unusually strong national Republican midterm surge capable of lifting down-ballot performance in urban strongholds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-12
Ganador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-12
$32,659 Vol.
$32,659 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
98%
Partido Republicano
<1%
$32,659 Vol.
$32,659 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$17,205 Vol.
98%
Partido Republicano
$15,454 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-12 is a reliably Democratic Manhattan-based district with longstanding partisan registration advantages and voting patterns that have produced consistent double-digit margins for Democratic nominees in recent cycles. Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary and enters the November general election against Republican Caroline Shinkle. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns the Democratic outcome overwhelming probability due to the district's structural lean, limited Republican organizational presence, and absence of recent polling or fundraising data indicating a competitive contest. Late developments that could narrow the gap remain narrow in scope and include an unforeseen candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or an unusually strong national Republican midterm surge capable of lifting down-ballot performance in urban strongholds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$32,659Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-12 is a reliably Democratic Manhattan-based district with longstanding partisan registration advantages and voting patterns that have produced consistent double-digit margins for Democratic nominees in recent cycles. Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary and enters the November general election against Republican Caroline Shinkle. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns the Democratic outcome overwhelming probability due to the district's structural lean, limited Republican organizational presence, and absence of recent polling or fundraising data indicating a competitive contest. Late developments that could narrow the gap remain narrow in scope and include an unforeseen candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or an unusually strong national Republican midterm surge capable of lifting down-ballot performance in urban strongholds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$32,659Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...NY-12 is a reliably Democratic Manhattan-based district with longstanding partisan registration advantages and voting patterns that have produced consistent double-digit margins for Democratic nominees in recent cycles. Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary and enters the November general election against Republican Caroline Shinkle. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns the Democratic outcome overwhelming probability due to the district's structural lean, limited Republican organizational presence, and absence of recent polling or fundraising data indicating a competitive contest. Late developments that could narrow the gap remain narrow in scope and include an unforeseen candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or an unusually strong national Republican midterm surge capable of lifting down-ballot performance in urban strongholds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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