Traders assign overwhelming probability to 70-75% turnout in Peru’s April 12-13 first round because this range aligns with established patterns in recent presidential contests, including the 75% recorded in 2021. Compulsory voting exists yet carries limited enforcement, while a 27.3-million-strong electorate and a fragmented field of 35 candidates have historically produced participation levels that cluster tightly around this band. The absence of major disruptions such as widespread protests, extreme weather, or security incidents in the final weeks reinforced expectations of steady compliance rather than mobilization surges or abstention spikes. Only an unprecedented late surge in party-driven get-out-the-vote efforts or sudden voter disillusionment could realistically shift the outcome above 85% or below 70%.