Ongoing military escalations and the absence of any scheduled bilateral summit continue to anchor trader expectations that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will not meet or shake hands by June 30. A brief U.S.-mediated ceasefire from May 9 to 11 collapsed amid mutual violations, followed by Russia's largest drone attacks on Kyiv on May 14 and Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. Kremlin statements stress that any direct encounter would require extensive preparation and firm security guarantees, with no such process underway despite low-level prisoner exchanges. This dynamic reflects entrenched territorial and security disputes that traders view as unlikely to resolve in the remaining weeks. Only an unforeseen multilateral breakthrough or major concession could alter the near-certain consensus against the outcome.