Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., confirmed by a 52-48 Senate vote in February 2025, continues to lead the department 15 months later, driving trader consensus toward a 68.5% implied probability he remains in post through December 31, 2026. Recent staff turbulence—including the chief spokesperson's resignation on May 14 over FDA fruit-flavored e-cigarette policy and FDA Commissioner Marty Makary's ouster two days prior—has not prompted his exit, nor have Democratic criticisms during April congressional hearings on the FY2026 budget request, where he defended staffing cuts and priorities. Reports of marginalization by White House allies persist without action from President Trump, who recently backed Kennedy on a hantavirus response, underscoring cabinet incumbency advantages absent major scandals or party pressure ahead of November midterms.