**The 94% "No" odds reflect Senate gridlock on H.R. 22 (the SAVE Act), which mandates documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration.** The bill passed the House in April 2025 and again in February 2026, but has repeatedly stalled after reaching the Senate, where it requires 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. Republicans hold 53 seats and have not secured the necessary Democratic support or the votes to eliminate the filibuster threshold. Recent developments reinforce this outlook. In March 2026, Senate debate on a related SAVE America Act version failed to advance, with at least one Republican (Sen. Lisa Murkowski) opposing cloture. July 2026 attempts to embed SAVE provisions into the NDAA and other must-pass legislation also did not succeed in the Senate. While scaled-back or incentive-based approaches have appeared in budget resolutions, none have cleared both chambers in identical form for presidential signature. With fewer than five months left in 2026 and no scheduled votes or procedural breakthroughs that would produce enactment, traders view full passage and signing as highly improbable absent a major shift in Senate dynamics.