Jon Bonck secured a commanding lead in the March 3 Republican primary for Texas's 38th congressional district, capturing nearly 48 percent of the vote in a crowded field and advancing to the May 26 runoff against Shelly deZevallos, who finished second with about 19 percent. High-profile endorsements from President Donald Trump and Senator Ted Cruz, combined with Bonck's superior fundraising as a mortgage broker, have consolidated support among primary voters in this solidly Republican Houston-area seat. Traders price Bonck as the heavy favorite at over 94 percent, consistent with historical patterns where primary frontrunners with national backing prevail in low-turnout runoffs. Late shifts in voter mobilization or unanticipated campaign developments before May 26 remain the main variables that could narrow the margin.