**Congressional gridlock and the absence of consensus on a comprehensive federal framework continue to suppress prospects for a broad AI safety bill by the end of 2026.** Multiple bipartisan proposals, including the FRONTIER Act and revised Great American AI Act drafts, have advanced only to committee discussion or markup stages, with key sticking points around state-law preemption, enforcement mechanisms for frontier models, and scope of oversight. The House Science Committee recently advanced narrower, research- and security-focused measures with strong bipartisan support, yet these avoid the regulatory elements central to most safety legislation. Meanwhile, states such as California, Illinois, and New York have enacted or implemented their own frontier-model transparency and auditing requirements, reducing federal urgency. With limited legislative days remaining before the midterms and no floor votes scheduled on major safety bills, trader consensus reflects the structural barriers to enactment in the current session.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
11% probabilidad
$101,934 Vol.
$101,934 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
11% probabilidad
$101,934 Vol.
$101,934 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Congressional gridlock and the absence of consensus on a comprehensive federal framework continue to suppress prospects for a broad AI safety bill by the end of 2026.** Multiple bipartisan proposals, including the FRONTIER Act and revised Great American AI Act drafts, have advanced only to committee discussion or markup stages, with key sticking points around state-law preemption, enforcement mechanisms for frontier models, and scope of oversight. The House Science Committee recently advanced narrower, research- and security-focused measures with strong bipartisan support, yet these avoid the regulatory elements central to most safety legislation. Meanwhile, states such as California, Illinois, and New York have enacted or implemented their own frontier-model transparency and auditing requirements, reducing federal urgency. With limited legislative days remaining before the midterms and no floor votes scheduled on major safety bills, trader consensus reflects the structural barriers to enactment in the current session.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volumen
$101,934Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Congressional gridlock and the absence of consensus on a comprehensive federal framework continue to suppress prospects for a broad AI safety bill by the end of 2026.** Multiple bipartisan proposals, including the FRONTIER Act and revised Great American AI Act drafts, have advanced only to committee discussion or markup stages, with key sticking points around state-law preemption, enforcement mechanisms for frontier models, and scope of oversight. The House Science Committee recently advanced narrower, research- and security-focused measures with strong bipartisan support, yet these avoid the regulatory elements central to most safety legislation. Meanwhile, states such as California, Illinois, and New York have enacted or implemented their own frontier-model transparency and auditing requirements, reducing federal urgency. With limited legislative days remaining before the midterms and no floor votes scheduled on major safety bills, trader consensus reflects the structural barriers to enactment in the current session.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$101,934Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Congressional gridlock and the absence of consensus on a comprehensive federal framework continue to suppress prospects for a broad AI safety bill by the end of 2026.** Multiple bipartisan proposals, including the FRONTIER Act and revised Great American AI Act drafts, have advanced only to committee discussion or markup stages, with key sticking points around state-law preemption, enforcement mechanisms for frontier models, and scope of oversight. The House Science Committee recently advanced narrower, research- and security-focused measures with strong bipartisan support, yet these avoid the regulatory elements central to most safety legislation. Meanwhile, states such as California, Illinois, and New York have enacted or implemented their own frontier-model transparency and auditing requirements, reducing federal urgency. With limited legislative days remaining before the midterms and no floor votes scheduled on major safety bills, trader consensus reflects the structural barriers to enactment in the current session.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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