Strong El Niño-driven wind shear across the tropical Atlantic has suppressed intensification throughout the 2026 season, producing only five named tropical storms and zero hurricanes as of September 18—the longest such stretch since the satellite era began in 1966. NOAA and NHC observations confirm persistently unfavorable conditions, with current disturbances showing low (around 10%) formation odds over the next seven days near the climatological peak. Accumulated cyclone energy sits at roughly 7% of average, consistent with model consensus for below-normal activity. This supports the market's 91.5% implied probability of no September hurricane. A realistic shift would require rapid El Niño weakening or an unexpected steering pattern allowing a late-month system to organize and reach sustained 74 mph winds before October 1.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuándo se formará el primer huracán en el Atlántico en 2026?
¿Cuándo se formará el primer huracán en el Atlántico en 2026?
No se formará ningún huracán en el Atlántico en septiembre de 2026 92%
21 al 25 de septiembre de 2026 7%
26 al 30 de septiembre de 2026 2.3%
11 al 15 de septiembre de 2026 <1%
$19,886 Vol.
$19,886 Vol.
15 sep 2026
11 al 15 de septiembre de 2026
1%
16 al 20 de septiembre de 2026
1%
21 al 25 de septiembre de 2026
7%
26 al 30 de septiembre de 2026
2%
No se formará ningún huracán en el Atlántico en septiembre de 2026
92%
No se formará ningún huracán en el Atlántico en septiembre de 2026 92%
21 al 25 de septiembre de 2026 7%
26 al 30 de septiembre de 2026 2.3%
11 al 15 de septiembre de 2026 <1%
$19,886 Vol.
$19,886 Vol.
15 sep 2026
11 al 15 de septiembre de 2026
$1,107 Vol.
1%
16 al 20 de septiembre de 2026
$9,085 Vol.
1%
21 al 25 de septiembre de 2026
$2,703 Vol.
7%
26 al 30 de septiembre de 2026
$2,107 Vol.
2%
No se formará ningún huracán en el Atlántico en septiembre de 2026
$4,273 Vol.
92%
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Strong El Niño-driven wind shear across the tropical Atlantic has suppressed intensification throughout the 2026 season, producing only five named tropical storms and zero hurricanes as of September 18—the longest such stretch since the satellite era began in 1966. NOAA and NHC observations confirm persistently unfavorable conditions, with current disturbances showing low (around 10%) formation odds over the next seven days near the climatological peak. Accumulated cyclone energy sits at roughly 7% of average, consistent with model consensus for below-normal activity. This supports the market's 91.5% implied probability of no September hurricane. A realistic shift would require rapid El Niño weakening or an unexpected steering pattern allowing a late-month system to organize and reach sustained 74 mph winds before October 1.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Mercado abierto: Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
Volumen
$19,886Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Strong El Niño-driven wind shear across the tropical Atlantic has suppressed intensification throughout the 2026 season, producing only five named tropical storms and zero hurricanes as of September 18—the longest such stretch since the satellite era began in 1966. NOAA and NHC observations confirm persistently unfavorable conditions, with current disturbances showing low (around 10%) formation odds over the next seven days near the climatological peak. Accumulated cyclone energy sits at roughly 7% of average, consistent with model consensus for below-normal activity. This supports the market's 91.5% implied probability of no September hurricane. A realistic shift would require rapid El Niño weakening or an unexpected steering pattern allowing a late-month system to organize and reach sustained 74 mph winds before October 1.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Volumen
$19,886Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño-driven wind shear across the tropical Atlantic has suppressed intensification throughout the 2026 season, producing only five named tropical storms and zero hurricanes as of September 18—the longest such stretch since the satellite era began in 1966. NOAA and NHC observations confirm persistently unfavorable conditions, with current disturbances showing low (around 10%) formation odds over the next seven days near the climatological peak. Accumulated cyclone energy sits at roughly 7% of average, consistent with model consensus for below-normal activity. This supports the market's 91.5% implied probability of no September hurricane. A realistic shift would require rapid El Niño weakening or an unexpected steering pattern allowing a late-month system to organize and reach sustained 74 mph winds before October 1.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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