Recent Kremlin statements confirm that preparations for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to China are finalized, with the trip expected imminently and reports pointing to a one-day stop in Beijing around May 20. This timeline falls well within the market’s May 31 cutoff and aligns with established bilateral diplomatic patterns between Moscow and Beijing. Trader consensus reflected in the elevated Yes probability incorporates these official signals alongside the absence of any reported obstacles such as scheduling conflicts or external disruptions. The primary remaining uncertainty centers on potential last-minute changes driven by unforeseen health developments, security developments, or shifts in the broader geopolitical calendar, though none have surfaced in official channels to date.