Russian forces continue incremental offensive operations and infiltration attempts in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka sector of Donetsk Oblast as part of efforts to pressure the broader Kramatorsk-Sloviansk defensive line. ISW assessments through mid-September 2026 indicate Russian reconnaissance and sabotage groups have reached parts of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka and its outskirts but have not consolidated positions or seized territory according to verified mapping, while Ukrainian units report repelling probes and clearing infiltrators. Glide bomb strikes, FPV drone interdiction of logistics routes, and artillery on approaches have intensified pressure without producing confirmed advances into the settlement itself. Trader probabilities reflect the grinding pace of Russian gains, Ukrainian localized counteractions, and the requirement for any ISW-confirmed Russian control by resolution dates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Rusia entrará de nuevo en Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka el...?
¿Rusia entrará de nuevo en Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka el...?
NUEVO
30 sep 2026
30 de septiembre
28%
31 de octubre
60%
31 de diciembre
88%
$5,020 Vol.
30 de septiembre
$3,694 Vol.
28%
31 de octubre
$868 Vol.
60%
31 de diciembre
$458 Vol.
88%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.578748° N, 37.616899° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces continue incremental offensive operations and infiltration attempts in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka sector of Donetsk Oblast as part of efforts to pressure the broader Kramatorsk-Sloviansk defensive line. ISW assessments through mid-September 2026 indicate Russian reconnaissance and sabotage groups have reached parts of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka and its outskirts but have not consolidated positions or seized territory according to verified mapping, while Ukrainian units report repelling probes and clearing infiltrators. Glide bomb strikes, FPV drone interdiction of logistics routes, and artillery on approaches have intensified pressure without producing confirmed advances into the settlement itself. Trader probabilities reflect the grinding pace of Russian gains, Ukrainian localized counteractions, and the requirement for any ISW-confirmed Russian control by resolution dates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.578748° N, 37.616899° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 1, 2026, 8:52 PM ET
Volumen
$5,020Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 1, 2026, 8:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.578748° N, 37.616899° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces continue incremental offensive operations and infiltration attempts in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka sector of Donetsk Oblast as part of efforts to pressure the broader Kramatorsk-Sloviansk defensive line. ISW assessments through mid-September 2026 indicate Russian reconnaissance and sabotage groups have reached parts of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka and its outskirts but have not consolidated positions or seized territory according to verified mapping, while Ukrainian units report repelling probes and clearing infiltrators. Glide bomb strikes, FPV drone interdiction of logistics routes, and artillery on approaches have intensified pressure without producing confirmed advances into the settlement itself. Trader probabilities reflect the grinding pace of Russian gains, Ukrainian localized counteractions, and the requirement for any ISW-confirmed Russian control by resolution dates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.578748° N, 37.616899° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volumen
$5,020Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 1, 2026, 8:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces continue incremental offensive operations and infiltration attempts in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka sector of Donetsk Oblast as part of efforts to pressure the broader Kramatorsk-Sloviansk defensive line. ISW assessments through mid-September 2026 indicate Russian reconnaissance and sabotage groups have reached parts of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka and its outskirts but have not consolidated positions or seized territory according to verified mapping, while Ukrainian units report repelling probes and clearing infiltrators. Glide bomb strikes, FPV drone interdiction of logistics routes, and artillery on approaches have intensified pressure without producing confirmed advances into the settlement itself. Trader probabilities reflect the grinding pace of Russian gains, Ukrainian localized counteractions, and the requirement for any ISW-confirmed Russian control by resolution dates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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