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icon for ¿Se lanzará la Misión Lunar Doge-1 antes de 2027?

¿Se lanzará la Misión Lunar Doge-1 antes de 2027?

icon for ¿Se lanzará la Misión Lunar Doge-1 antes de 2027?

¿Se lanzará la Misión Lunar Doge-1 antes de 2027?

Sí

8% probabilidad
Polymarket

$800,697 Vol.

Sí

8% probabilidad
Polymarket

$800,697 Vol.

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.Trader consensus assigns a 92% implied probability that the DOGE-1 12U CubeSat will not reach lunar orbit before 2027, reflecting repeated postponements since its 2021 announcement and the absence of a locked rideshare slot on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 manifest. The satellite, funded in Dogecoin and designed for lunar data collection, has faced hardware integration setbacks that pushed timelines from early 2022 targets through a tentative September 2026 window aligned with Intuitive Machines IM-3. SpaceX’s packed cadence prioritizing Starlink and crewed flights, combined with Elon Musk’s February 2026 remark suggesting a possible 2027 launch, reinforces the current positioning. A late-2026 manifest confirmation or expedited secondary-payload integration could narrow the gap, though narrow trans-lunar injection opportunities and secondary-payload constraints remain key variables ahead of any final agency update.

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Volumen
$800,697
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.Trader consensus assigns a 92% implied probability that the DOGE-1 12U CubeSat will not reach lunar orbit before 2027, reflecting repeated postponements since its 2021 announcement and the absence of a locked rideshare slot on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 manifest. The satellite, funded in Dogecoin and designed for lunar data collection, has faced hardware integration setbacks that pushed timelines from early 2022 targets through a tentative September 2026 window aligned with Intuitive Machines IM-3. SpaceX’s packed cadence prioritizing Starlink and crewed flights, combined with Elon Musk’s February 2026 remark suggesting a possible 2027 launch, reinforces the current positioning. A late-2026 manifest confirmation or expedited secondary-payload integration could narrow the gap, though narrow trans-lunar injection opportunities and secondary-payload constraints remain key variables ahead of any final agency update.

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Volumen
$800,697
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Se lanzará la Misión Lunar Doge-1 antes de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿La misión lunar Doge-1 se lanzará antes de 2027?" con 8%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 8¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 8% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Se lanzará la Misión Lunar Doge-1 antes de 2027?" ha generado $800.7K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jan 7, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Se lanzará la Misión Lunar Doge-1 antes de 2027?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "¿Se lanzará la Misión Lunar Doge-1 antes de 2027?" es "¿La misión lunar Doge-1 se lanzará antes de 2027?" con solo 8%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Se lanzará la Misión Lunar Doge-1 antes de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.