President Trump's January 2026 public reversal, ruling out military force to acquire Greenland while calling for negotiations, has anchored trader expectations against any U.S. invasion this year. Subsequent U.S. efforts have centered on expanding access to existing bases through talks with Denmark, marking a shift toward cooperative military posture rather than confrontation. Denmark's firm rejection of cession, combined with NATO treaty obligations that would compel allied defense of the territory, has further elevated the diplomatic and alliance costs of any forcible action. No official statements or planning documents since the reversal have signaled renewed invasion preparations, leaving the implied probability of "no" at 93.5 percent as a reflection of the current absence of escalatory triggers.