Traders assign a 97.5% implied probability against Özgür Özel’s arrest by June 30 because recent developments show no active detention order or accelerated legal proceedings targeting the CHP parliamentary group leader personally. A May 2026 appeals court ruling annulled his party chairmanship and triggered probes into the 2023 congress, resulting in detentions of other CHP figures, yet Özel has continued public activities, including re-election as faction leader and internal party maneuvers through early June. The short remaining window and absence of new charges or enforcement signals sustain the consensus reflected in market pricing. A rapid escalation in the ongoing investigation or unrelated allegations filed before the deadline represent the primary factors that could still shift the outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoÖzgür Özel arrested by June 30?
Özgür Özel arrested by June 30?
$28,925 Vol.
$28,925 Vol.
30 jun 2026
$28,925 Vol.
$28,925 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 97.5% implied probability against Özgür Özel’s arrest by June 30 because recent developments show no active detention order or accelerated legal proceedings targeting the CHP parliamentary group leader personally. A May 2026 appeals court ruling annulled his party chairmanship and triggered probes into the 2023 congress, resulting in detentions of other CHP figures, yet Özel has continued public activities, including re-election as faction leader and internal party maneuvers through early June. The short remaining window and absence of new charges or enforcement signals sustain the consensus reflected in market pricing. A rapid escalation in the ongoing investigation or unrelated allegations filed before the deadline represent the primary factors that could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: May 24, 2026, 9:47 PM ET
Volumen
$28,925Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 24, 2026, 9:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 97.5% implied probability against Özgür Özel’s arrest by June 30 because recent developments show no active detention order or accelerated legal proceedings targeting the CHP parliamentary group leader personally. A May 2026 appeals court ruling annulled his party chairmanship and triggered probes into the 2023 congress, resulting in detentions of other CHP figures, yet Özel has continued public activities, including re-election as faction leader and internal party maneuvers through early June. The short remaining window and absence of new charges or enforcement signals sustain the consensus reflected in market pricing. A rapid escalation in the ongoing investigation or unrelated allegations filed before the deadline represent the primary factors that could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$28,925Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 24, 2026, 9:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97.5% implied probability against Özgür Özel’s arrest by June 30 because recent developments show no active detention order or accelerated legal proceedings targeting the CHP parliamentary group leader personally. A May 2026 appeals court ruling annulled his party chairmanship and triggered probes into the 2023 congress, resulting in detentions of other CHP figures, yet Özel has continued public activities, including re-election as faction leader and internal party maneuvers through early June. The short remaining window and absence of new charges or enforcement signals sustain the consensus reflected in market pricing. A rapid escalation in the ongoing investigation or unrelated allegations filed before the deadline represent the primary factors that could still shift the outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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