Analyst consensus from the BCRA’s November 5 Market Expectations Survey places October 2026 monthly inflation at 1.8%, aligning closely with private forecasts of 1.8–2.0% from firms such as Equilibra and Fundación Libertad y Progreso. This follows September’s 1.9% print and reflects continued disinflation momentum under current monetary policy, tempered by persistent pressures from seasonal food items and regulated prices. Core inflation is expected near 1.7%, supporting the market-implied 52.5% probability on the 1.9–2.1% outcome while leaving room for the 27.5% odds on 1.6–1.8%. The INDEC release scheduled for November 12 will resolve the market, with recent data revisions and stable labor conditions reinforcing the narrow trading range around 2%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved

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